Mediation between the Yemeni government and the rebel cleric's army has moved up a gear, but will the siege finally end? Peter Willems reports Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has put together a delegation of over 25 officials to convince militant cleric Hussein Al-Houthi and his armed followers, who are currently holed up in north Yemen, to surrender. The delegation, comprising leading Islamic scholars, politicians and Al-Houthi's brother, Yahya, who is a member of parliament, are offering the religious leader a fair trial. Many hope that the negotiations will succeed in ending clashes between government forces and Al- Houthi's supporters that have lasted for more than a month and a half. The official body count is now over 300, but witnesses near the battleground say the death toll is much higher. "I hope that these talks work. This is the best way to finish the conflict peacefully, and it would be beneficial to Yemen," said Mohamed Al- Muttawakil, assistant secretary-general of the Popular Forces Union Party and former minister of supply and trade who was asked to join the delegation but turned it down due to health problems. Some analysts doubt that the delegation will be able to break the deadlock. Saleh sent two delegations to negotiate with Al-Houthi last month, but Al-Houthi said he would rather fight than surrender. "It isn't likely that negotiations will end fighting," said a Yemeni political analyst. "Al-Houthi might stand by his cause and believe that he is seen better by being killed rather than giving up." One worry is that if the negotiations fail, fighting in the Saada province, 240km (150 miles) north of the capital Sana'a, could drag on for weeks, if not months. "The government underestimated Al-Houthi's forces," said the analyst. "The president sent in troops and faced guerrilla tactics, snipers and ambushes, which means that Saleh is facing the same problems as Bush is facing in Iraq, but on a smaller scale." Some are concerned that if the clashes turn out to be a long drawn-out battle, it could encourage other rebel groups to emerge and confront the government. Since the Yemeni government joined the US in the "war on terror" soon after the 11 September attacks on US soil it has made significant progress in rounding up hundreds of terrorist suspects, including key members of the Al-Qaeda network. But the government only has control of roughly half the country and vast rural areas are ruled by tribal leaders. "If the government forces don't win decisively, it will show that it is weak and will encourage more groups to pop up," said Khaled Al-Akwaa, professor of public policy at Sana'a University. "Less than that and it could be a disaster." Another concern is that the delegation may give up too much ground during negotiations to bring an end to the fighting. It is reported that part of the talks include guarantees to protect the safety of Al-Houthi and his followers after surrendering. "There are signs that the government is now more inclined towards minimising the damage incurred as a result of the confrontation, even if that means letting the issue die out with no trial or public execution," said Abdullah Al-Faqih, professor of political science at Sanaa University. Some worry that if there are too many concessions, it could also motivate extremists to act. "The government must carry out its campaign to defeat the group or make Al-Houthi face justice," said Al-Akwaa. "It's important at this time for the government to establish law and order across the country." The Yemeni government accuses Al-Houthi, a leader of the Zaidi Shia sect, of promoting violent anti-US and anti-Israeli protests. He established a group called "Believing Youth" and is believed to have secretly trained his followers to form an armed militia at his stronghold in the north. When authorities tried to arrest Al-Houthi on 18 June, they faced armed resistance. Saleh ordered government forces to suspend attacks on Al-Houthi's supporters, said to be between 1,000 and 3,000 strong, when he announced the formation of the new delegation. A member of the parliament involved in the talks in June accused the Yemeni army of continued fighting to undermine a peaceful solution.
