There are elections planned across the Arab world. But nowhere more than in Egypt, reports Gamal Essam El-Din For the Arab world 2005 may well be remembered as the year of elections. January's Palestinian and Iraqi elections will be followed by a variety of polls in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Oman and Yemen. It is only in Egypt, though, that both presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled, in September and October respectively. Though still nine months away, the campaign for the presidential election has already shifted into gear. And unlike in earlier years, when the re-nomination of President Hosni Mubarak was a foregone conclusion, the matter has so far been the subject of conflicting announcements. On 3 January Kamal El-Shazli, assistant secretary- general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), surprised many when he announced that not only had the NDP already selected Mubarak to run for an unprecedented fifth six-year term in office, but also that Mubarak would be sworn in "at a historic parliamentary session". El-Shazli's announcement drew sharp criticism, not least from Gamal Mubarak, the president's son, who heads the NDP's powerful Policies Committee. While the opposition charaterised El-Shazli's announcement as "contemptuous of the people's will", Gamal Mubarak emphasised that the ruling party had not yet reached a decision on the re-nomination. "The decision," he said, "is President Mubarak's and the presidential re-nomination campaign will begin only if President Mubarak decides that he will run, and not before." In an indirect rebuke to El-Shazli the younger Mubarak said that any announcement insinuating that the result of the presidential referendum was a foregone conclusion would be an abuse of the rights of voters. He then chided the party's old guard, arguing that "they must change to keep up with the new styles of thinking". Given Gamal Mubarak's recent assertiveness in the political arena it came as little surprise when, on Monday, Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif told Associated Press he had no objections if Mubarak actually became president one day. Meanwhile, Mahdi Akef, leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, stated that he fully expects Gamal Mubarak to be the next president. President Mubarak, who has repeatedly denied that he is grooming his son for the presidency, underlined the point again last week when he said that Gamal acts as "an assistant to me in just the same way the daughter of President Jacques Chirac acts as an assistant to her father". President Mubarak has so far refrained from either confirming or denying whether he will seek a fifth mandate. In a series of interviews with foreign and Arab media outlets Mubarak, 77, at times seemed to be deliberately casting doubt over his re-nomination. In an interview with the US public television channel PBS on 13 January, he said he has yet to reach a decision on his re-nomination while earlier, on a TV talk show on 8 January, he had said that he would welcome "100 rivals for the presidency". In another interview, on 16 January, this time with the Dubai-based Arabiya channel, Mubarak gave the impression that he would run only if the people wanted him to do so. "If I said I would not run a lot of trouble and mess could be caused," Mubarak said. "Governing Egypt is no picnic," he continued. "It is a very difficult business. You have limited resources, a growing population and the tremendous requirements of the people." Also on 16 January, in a meeting with journalists and intellectuals, Mubarak seemed to hint that he remains the person most capable of governing Egypt. It was the strength that comes with experience, he suggested, that allowed him to reject a generous financial offer -- most probably from the US -- intended to facilitate the resettling of Palestinians around the Red Sea resort of Hurghada. If Mubarak has so far refrained from clarifying his position over the re-nomination he has been forthright in expressing his views on Egypt's political and economic life. In his meeting with intellectuals Mubarak dismissed speculation that the constitution would be amended in the foreseeable future. He also defended the preeminence of the NDP, insisting that "the existence of a majority party is important if Egyptian political life is not to collapse into the chaos the pre-1952 Revolution coalition governments used to face". He remained committed to reserving 50 per cent of seats in parliament to representatives of workers and farmers. Mubarak also insisted that religious parties would continue to be banned. On the economy he was at pains to stress a populist message, vowing to keep education free, reject the privatisation of public utilities and ensure that basic foodstuffs and services remain subsidised "as protection for the limited-income classes who form the majority of citizens". (see p.3)
