Have demands for political reform reached fever pitch? Omayma Abdel-Latif wonders whether Egypt's long anticipated democratic spring has actually arrived The scene at Cairo University on Tuesday was extraordinarily rare. Professors -- and not just students -- were going public with their angry demands for change. A group of 30 professors stood silently on the steps of the university's famed dome; some dressed in the black robes of academia, were holding signs with slogans like "No to security interference, yes to university independence" written on them. Another professor-led protest took place at Minya University on Monday. The series of demonstrations were organised by two main groups: Professors for Change; and The Independent Universities Working Group. Petitions calling for "an end to security control over universities" had been put together and were being distributed as well. "This is only the beginning of a long process," said Cairo University's Laila Suief, a science professor. "While this is a symbolic act of protest against attempts to transform campuses from educational institutions into security-run zones, it is not isolated from things going on outside the campus." In fact, the professors' new-found activism -- when viewed within the larger context of other changes taking place on Egypt's political scene -- are indeed significant. They are the latest in a series of pro-reform activities that have been sweeping the country over the past few weeks, and have included previously unheard of events like the anti-Mubarak rallies which have brought together liberals, communists, Nasserists and Islamists, to nearly daily campus demonstrations on domestic, rather than regional, affairs. The recent threat by a group of Egyptian judges to boycott the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections -- unless the state guarantees full judicial supervision independent of the Interior Ministry's heavy hand -- was another landmark. Some have said that these are all signs that the country is on the verge of a major transformation. Optimistic accounts tend to portray these events as proof that Egypt is moving swiftly along democracy's road. Others, mostly within opposition and civil society circles, are more sceptical, arguing that it would be misleading to portray the current wave of protests and public anger as evidence of a much-anticipated Cairo spring. No one denies that the current Intifadat Al- Islah (reform uprising), as some activists have come to refer to the upsurge in public protest, has shifted the Egyptian political scene away from years of political stagnation and paralysis. But comprehending the nature of the change, and the various directions the country's political development may take, is a far tougher challenge. This might account for the difficulty analysts face when asked to predict the possible outcome of these seemingly impulsive beginnings of change. "The political path of change in Egypt is uncertain," said Cairo University political science professor Mustafa Kamel El-Sayed. "It would be an exaggeration to talk about a Cairo spring now, because so far the reform movements have failed to garner the sweeping popular support they need. This is one reason why it is difficult to predict the shape the transformation process is likely to take." The lack of a viable political alternative to the current regime, combined with the chronic structural weaknesses and social isolation of most reform movements and opposition parties, serve as major hurdles along the path of substantial reform. "Except for the Muslim Brotherhood," said Bahieddin Hassan, who heads the Cairo Centre for Human Rights, "none of the existing political forces could be considered a threat to Mubarak's regime." At the same time, for the majority of Egypt's political forces, the mere thought of having the outlawed Brotherhood group in power is a non-starter. Hassan said many in the pro-reform movement are sceptical of the Brotherhood's agenda. In public debates as well as behind closed doors, he said, many question their real intentions. "Some even say that if they were to choose between the existing status quo and a regime presided over by the Brotherhood, they would opt for the former." Scepticism about the Brotherhood's plans was made even more acute by several recent press reports indicating that the group is currently negotiating with the government to allow it to organise a rally against foreign meddling in Egypt's affairs. Some unconfirmed reports in the independent press have even suggested that a deal is about to be struck between the government and the Brotherhood to break ranks with pro-reform activists in the Egyptian Movement for Change, also known as Kifaya (Enough). That is why Hassan thinks the current alliance between liberals and Islamists will not last, and will not represent a true challenge to the status quo. "The alliance will be short-lived until the ideological differences on central issues are resolved," he said. Among those issues were questions about the role of the state, and the role of religion, in any future political system. "These are by no means technical issues," Hassan said. "They go to the heart of the question of what kind of a future we want for Egypt. There is no consensual vision about how Egypt should be governed." The ambiguity of that situation leads some analysts to posit a scenario where chaos ultimately prevails. Abul-Ela Madi, a member of Kifaya, thinks such a stagnant political situation could plausibly result in chaos. There are only two possible scenarios, he told Al-Ahram Weekly. The regime will either choose to respond to calls for reform with "their own show of democracy based on cosmetic reform, or will simply discredit all calls for reform as acts of subversion," Madi said. In the latter case, he warned, a doomsday scenario is likely to follow. "If reform concerns are not addressed properly, at some point the boiling discontent and resentment is bound to get out of control." Others beg to differ. Muslim Brotherhood member Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh dismissed predictions that the choices were limited to the National Democratic Party (NDP) or the Muslim Brotherhood. "We cannot reduce all political forces on the scene to just the NDP or the Brotherhood. There are other forces at play. Let the democratic process and the ballot box be the alternative," Abul-Fotouh said. "We should not expropriate the public's right to choose their own rulers. Let the Islamists, the Nasserists and the liberals run for office, and show their respect for the will of the electorate." According to Abul-Fotouh, the only plausible political project would have to bring together elements from liberal, Islamist and nationalist forces. "The only political vision that will get a consensus must include these three elements. Any attempt by any party -- including the Brotherhood itself -- to exclude other forces will not be tolerated."
