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Where did we go wrong?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 20 - 00 - 2010

Egypt's Nile neighbours have suddenly started biting and Al-Qaeda's third generation comes from cyberspace. Doaa El-Bey and Rasha Saad explain
The extension of the emergency law and the unilateral signing of a new water-sharing pact by four Nile Basin countries were the two biggest issues of the week.
Ali El-Sayed said he believed the second issue was far more important than the first. He wrote in the independent daily Al-Masry Al-Yom that talking proved to be useless because it did not prevent the extension of the emergency law. The country has been governed by the emergency law for 30 years and, he added, extending it would not matter as long as the country is unstable, the future is uncertain, its security threatened, the economy collapsing and education failing. "The emergency law will collapse on its own if it is substituted for democracy and liberty," El-Sayed added.
However, we cannot remain silent when we see what touches our life and that of our children. The government underestimated the impact of the agreement signed by four Nile Basin countries which is likely to reduce Egypt's historical share of the Nile water.
El-Sayed wondered when Egyptian diplomatic efforts will work, and why these efforts did not work over the years to prevent the signing of such an agreement. Didn't our government know what was going on -- redistributing the shares of the Nile's water -- or didn't the Egyptian Foreign Ministry see the international investment projects and the Zionist plots in the source countries in order to pressure them to move against us? If the agreement will not affect our relations with these countries as the government claims, what will affect it? The drying up of the Nile?
"The water crisis erupted because the entire country is shackled by the chains of the emergency law, and because the primary concern of our government is to maintain an exceptional law which makes everyone fail to see anything beyond their feet," El-Sayed concluded.
Salah Montasser wrote that in order to deal with the Nile crisis, we should see matters as they are, not as we like to see them. Thus, he pointed to a few facts; first, the River Nile is the longest river in the world, passing as it does through 10 states. Second, the crisis started 10 years ago, but it came to the surface just this month when Tanzania, Rwanda and the Congo called for increasing their water quota to meet their increasing need of water. And that would definitely be at the expense of Egypt and Sudan's quotas as per the 1929 agreement.
Third, the upstream states based their argument on the incumbency of changing previous agreements due to their increasing need of water, whereas downstream nations Egypt and Sudan stuck to the 1929 agreement that identified their quota and gave Egypt the right to object to any Nile projects that could affect the quota.
However, Montasser wrote in the official daily Al-Ahram that while the crisis could be dangerous it is among neighbouring countries which will always be neighbours. Thus, he added, dialogue is the best way to deal with the crisis. He also suggested that one body should be selected to issue statements about the latest developments so as to avoid contradictory statements in such a sensitive issue.
Mohamed El-Shabba asked how the Nile Basin countries rebelled against Egypt and how Egypt could lose its water quota.
El-Shabba claimed in the independent daily Nahdet Masr that it is not correct when the government says Egypt's water quota will not be affected by the new agreement or that the previous agreements are still in effect.
Egypt lost all the African states, not only the Nile Basin countries, because it neglected them for a long time even though they represent the strategic depth of our national security and a vast market for our products. The big sister, El-Shabba added, which was supposed to be present to help the African states in time of draught, desertification and famine was not there. As a result, we lost our status as the leader of Africa.
Galal Dweidar focussed on means to contain the crisis. He wrote in the official daily Al-Akhbar that Egypt's invitation to the Nile Basin states to resume negotiations to reach a compromise was the first step towards that end.
He suggested launching a wide-ranging political PR campaign that not only includes the signatories but all the African states and beyond as well. We should make use of the good ties that we managed to establish with many countries to help us in our campaign.
In addition, well thought out political dialogue with Nile Basin states should be convincing, like Nile water is more than enough for the needs of all Nile Basin states and integration among these states is required and can help establish various projects that can make full use of Nile water.
He also suggested the establishment of a high level team, like that which conducted the negotiations for regaining Taba. The team should consider the Nile problem as an issue of national security. However, their success depends on the unlimited means provided to them.
Mohamed Mustafa Shordi wrote that after four African countries signed a new agreement controlling over 90 per cent of the water that reaches Egypt, it had become clear the Nile is in genuine danger.
It doesn't matter that African countries claim the agreement will not affect Egypt's quota of water, because if that was really so, those countries would not have needed such an agreement and Egypt would not have rejected it. "These claims are only to calm us down, just like the claims of the National Democratic Party regarding the emergency law, as they say that it exists but will not be fully implemented," Shordi wrote in the daily Al-Wafd, the mouthpiece of the opposition Wafd Party.
The upstream countries have placed us before a fait accompli despite the presence of a declared international agreement that organised water sharing among Nile Basin countries. Today, these countries decided to unilaterally cancel the treaty and gave Egypt, Sudan and the rest of the countries a deadline for ratifying the new agreement, which is impossible for Egypt.
The important question is what should we do now? Shordi called on the minister of irrigation to take all necessary measures, whether diplomatic, legal, international or local, but we must move.
The conflict over water has begun in Egypt "the gift of the Nile". Experts predicted a problem would arise 25 years ago, but there is no need to panic as our minister says we will take measures. But what are these measures?


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