Canadians are cautious about the future as the Conservatives win a minority in the country's 2006 federal elections, reports Robert Farnan Governing a democracy, like a family, does not solely mean protecting the interests of those who rule, those at the head. It also consists of a set of practices which look out for the concerns of citizens and parties who make up the family. It means considering everything that may happen: victory and defeat; corruption and inquiry; and from there forming a will to govern -- doing what can be done to convince and form alliances with others, so as to survive. The Liberal Party of Canada failed to manage the sponsorship scandal. The Prime Minister Paul Martin failed to convince. When the Gomery inquiry reported the extensive corruption and waste of public funds under the Liberals, they lost accountability, not only in Parliament, but also in the eyes of Canada's 22.7 million registered voters. The party was no longer able to convince the citizens that they were ethically accountable. When governmental accountability and mismanagement manifested into the prime topic of the election, Liberal support wavered. After losing an alliance with the New Democratic Party (NDP), following a row over health care, the Liberals, no longer able to manage alliances, lost their ability to survive and, essentially, to convince the electorate that they were fit to govern. On January 23rd, after a lengthy winter campaign, the Canadian public echoed the sentiments of the opposition parties, and voted, for the first time in 13 years, a Conservative party into government. Unlike the 2004 elections, which saw the worst electoral turn out since 1898, January 2005's election witnessed 65 per cent of eligible voters casting ballots in 66000 polling stations across Canada. Stephen Harper's Conservatives won 124 seats (36 per cent of the vote), while Paul Martin's Liberals won 103 (30 per cent of the vote). Gilles Duceppe's separatist Bloc Quebecois collected 51 seats, down three from 2004 and New Democratic leader Jack Layton saw his party receive 29 seats (17.5 per cent of the vote), an improvement of 11 seats from the previous election. Following confirmation of the results, the prime minister to be delivered a speech from his party's headquarters. Harper declared the election a sign that Canadians wanted change. "Tonight, friends, our great country has voted for change ... Canadians have asked our party to take the lead in delivering that change. We will honour your words and deliver on our commitments." Paul Martin, however, delivered a subdued speech in front of dejected supporters. In his speech he promised an "orderly transition" of power. In reference to Harper, Martin said, "we differ on many things but we all share the belief of the potential and the promise of Canada and the desire of our country to succeed." In the final days leading up to the election, opinion polls indicated that the Conservatives had moved ahead of the Liberals by as much as 10 per cent. This drastic change suggested that the Conservative's strategy of steady "old-style campaigning," delivering a policy message a day, had been effective, as it put the Liberals in a reactionary position -- continually on the defensive. With the Liberals unable to initiate and focus energies on campaign issues pertaining to their platform, the Conservatives were able to make increasing gains in public opinion, as Harper put forth a clear, accountable, vision for Canada's future government. The increased public support for the Conservatives can partly be attributed to the way Harper successfully transformed his image from a hard right-wing conservative with a hidden agenda on controversial social issues, such as abortion, same-sex marriage and gun control, into a progressive conservative with a strong belief in consensus building and a clear vision for Canada. These developments, combined with a Liberal government's inability to shake off the lingering sponsorship scandal, seemed to coalesce in favour of the Conservatives. However, even though the corruption scandal continued to beset the Liberals, the wavering public support for Martin did not translate directly into support for Harper. The Conservatives, despite sweeping Alberta and making impressive gains in the Prairies (the Tories won 48 out of 56 seats in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba), were unable to garner the 155 seats required for an out-right majority in Parliament. This distribution of votes was due to the demographic split between Canadians living in urban areas and those living in rural communities: in Canada's three largest cities, Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, Conservative candidates were unable to win a single seat. In the primarily French-speaking province of Quebec, post-election issues will take on new dimensions. The province, which proved to be a prime battle ground in the election, showed an increase in support for the Conservatives. Harper's party had 10 candidates elected, which was a drastic improvement from the last election, in which none of their candidates won a seat. Federalists would be happy to note, that out of those 10 Conservative seats, eight had been won by the Bloc Quebecois and two by the Liberals, in the 2004 election. Paul Martin's party, who had 21 seats previously in Quebec dropped to 13, while the Bloc Quebecois dropped three seats to 51. Quebecois, in other words, were not angry at Canada following the Gomery inquiry but at the Liberals. With the Conservatives now in Ottawa, some political analysts are suggesting that Canada's centre of power is moving westward. Harper, who was born in Ontario, Canada's most populous province, was raised in Alberta, the country's richest province. Traditionally, prime ministers have hailed from Ontario and Quebec. Harper's victory, in the minds of many, marks a symbolic shift, as the locus of government moves west into the Conservative stronghold, and oil-rich province, of Alberta. Despite the pronouncements of some analysts, the speculation of a drastic shift in power is premature. Canada's political dynamic will continue to habour extensive dialogue between the Federal government and the Provinces. Harper's devotion to small government will over-weigh any sea change away from capital hill. The Conservatives will need to build a consensus in order to rule and Harper, as a minority leader, will have to be open to dialogue between the other party leaders in order to pass legislation. In the months following the election the Tories will have to search pragmatically for a consensus with the other parties. As a minority government, in order to rule, they will work for dialogue in parliament; not only so they may build on Harper promises and create alliances, but also in order to stave off another election.
