Somalia is now essentially Islamist while its new effective leaders claim it is no bastion of tyranny, writes Gamal Nkrumah Now things look a lot more complicated in Somalia. The warlord Abdi Qeybdid, the last member of the Anti-Terror Alliance, was thrown out of Mogadishu this week, his militia defeated and disbanded. In the long term, the surpassing of the warlords is excellent news. The Islamic Courts, now virtually in control of much of the country south of Puntland, are very popular. It is easy to see why: they have instilled law and order. The Somali transitional government, headed by President Abdullah Youssef and Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi, used to be cautiously sympathetic to the Islamic Courts Union. Today, the transitional government very much resents the arrogance and self-righteousness of these adversaries. The fundamental problem is that the transitional government and the Islamic Courts appeal to two very different electorates -- not that there is any chance of free and fair elections in Somalia in the foreseeable future. The Somali civil war created a country with a wretched and desperate people. The Islamic Courts regime offers an alternative -- peace, security and a more investor-friendly climate. Its leaders call for increased trade opportunities with oil-rich Gulf countries. They are especially keen to cement traditional friendly ties between Somalia and the rest of the Arab world -- Somalia, after all is a member of the Arab League. The Islamic Courts also desire far closer economic and political cooperation with the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries. Somalia, a member of the OIC, is in a state of turmoil and it needs the assistance of all the friends it can muster. The problem is that most of Somalia's neighbours -- in particular Ethiopia and Kenya, two countries with large ethnic Somali minorities -- are reluctant to deal with the Islamic Courts. They are ardent supporters of the transitional government. What should worry the Ethiopians and the Kenyans is the extent to which the Islamic Courts are popular in Somalia, which calls into question their own judgement of the situation there. The Islamic Courts, too, are taking a hard line position. They are putting on a brave face, despite regional antagonism. "Any attempt to fight the Islamic Courts is pointless," Sheikh Sherif Ahmed warned. "Any group that tries to fight the Islamic Courts will be destroyed. The Islamic Courts have overcome the infidel stooges," he added. The Islamic Courts have been working assiduously to win over the populace. The same cannot be said, however, of its efforts to win foreign friends outside the Arab and Islamic world. Ethiopia, in particular, has a longstanding fear of militant Islamists and is concerned about the imposition of a Taliban- like state in neighbouring Somalia. The Taliban was hardly a model of democracy. Ethiopia hopes that it can be a model for its eastern neighbour. The Ethiopian economy is picking up, and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is trying to spruce the country up and unleash its full potential. The last thing that it needs is a troublesome and bellicose neighbour with a sagging economy and possible totalitarian outlook. It is against this backdrop of anarchy and statelessness that the Islamic Courts are struggling for regional recognition, especially from the Arab and Muslim worlds. They must banish, however, the growing suspicion among Somalia's neighbours that they intend to institute a militant Islamist regime similar to Afghanistan's Taliban. With the way things are going it should not be overly difficult. The transitional Somali government and even the Ethiopians and Kenyans have not ruled out contact with the Islamic Courts. "We in Ethiopia are carefully examining developments in Somalia. We insist on recognising the transitional government," Ethiopia's Ambassador to Egypt Ibrahim Idris told Al-Ahram Weekly. "We are also coordinating and working closely with regional, continental and international organisations such as the Inter-Governmental for Development (IGAD), the African Union and the United Nations," Ambassador Idris explained. "We believe that the deployment of peace-keeping forces is a prerequisite for peace at this historical juncture." The transitional Somali government based in Baidoa also requests the deployment of peace-keeping troops. The Islamic Courts, however, are vehemently opposed to the deployment of foreign troops in the country. The problem is that if the Islamic Courts effectively control the country there would be no point in deploying foreign troops. The transitional government argues that there are still pockets of resistance all over the country. In a sense, the argument is moot. There is nothing that the transitional government can do to head off trouble. The Islamic Courts militias have routed the warlords -- backed by the United States -- of the loose Anti-Terror Alliance coalition. "Our enemies are finished," boasted Hassan Dhaher Aweis, the newly elected head of the self-styled Somali Supreme Islamic Courts Council (a new, and somewhat clumsy, name for the Islamic Courts Union). Aweis was the head of an organisation branded a terrorist group by the United States -- Al-Ittihad Al-Islami. The group was hotly pursued by Ethiopian armed forces and were routed towards the end of the 1990s and the early years of this decade. Now there is peace and quiet in much of the area controlled by the Islamic Courts. Nonetheless, there are signs of unrest, with Baidoa -- seat of the transitional government -- virtually besieged. Humanitarian conditions, meanwhile, are worsening. Children are malnourished and dying of hunger. Still, officially the mood is upbeat. "There is hope and Somalis must reach a consensus and learn to live together peaceably," Somali Ambassador to Egypt Abdullah Hassan Mahmoud told the Weekly.
