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Tail wags the dog
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 20 - 07 - 2006

The US is again putting its interests second to Israel in the Middle East, writes Muqtedar Khan*
The crisis in the Middle East is rapidly reaching dangerous proportions. Unless something or somebody injects a heavy dose of sanity into the region's affairs immediately it is likely to escalate into a wider conflict that will make Iraq look like a picnic. The only player perhaps capable of playing this role is the United States. But thanks to a lame duck president whose credibility at home and abroad is embarrassing, the world's only super power, and the natural guarantor of global order, remains like its leader, ineffective and directionless on the global stage.
The US has most to lose if things get out of hand. Its key interests in the region can be stated thus: OIL (oil, Israel and Liberalism). They are all in jeopardy. Oil is already at a record high, over $77 at the moment due to fears of disruption in event of a wider war. Israel has never been more insecure. Its two biggest enemies, Hamas and Hizbullah are effectively in control in the north and south and are firing rockets at it from both directions.
US attempts to promote democracy and liberalism in the region had made both Hamas and Hizbullah legitimate political forces, creating hopes of positive transformation in the two players. Now its own ally, Israel, has undermined Palestinian democracy with its military campaign in Gaza and by attacking Lebanon and pounding it mercilessly it is weakening the forces of democracy and strengthening support for Hizbullah.
Israel could have easily engaged in a prisoner exchange with Hamas and Hizbullah as it has done several times in the past, and most recently in 2004, and the matter would have ended there. But Israel's overwhelming response to the capture of its soldiers, at a time when Iraq is on the brink of civil war and the Iranian nuclear crisis is at its zenith, is undermining all the key pillars of American national interests in the region. However, I do not blame Israel for this crisis; it is doing what it thinks it must to pursue its security and interests. I am wondering whether the US is doing everything it should in the region to defend its interests.
All players in the region are pursuing self-interest. The ability of Hamas and Hizbullah to attack the invincible military of Israel and score successes, killing and capturing soldiers, and shooting rockets as deep inside Israel as Haifa, must have sent a chill down Israel's spine. It is reacting with overwhelming force out of fear. Israel's future depends on its ability to terrorise the Arab world through superior military power and it thinks that by punishing innocent Palestinians and Lebanese civilians it can restore that power and deter future attacks.
Hizbullah, which is under pressure from within Lebanon and the international community to demilitarise, has once again succeeded in presenting itself as the only defence that Lebanon has against Israel. Israel's killing of dozens of Lebanese civilians and bombing of Beirut will merely increase support for Hizbullah, attract more recruits and funding, and increase hatred for Israel. Right now, even the Christians in Lebanon must hate Israel, as their tourism industry suffers because of this new war that Israel is waging against Lebanon.
Iran, thanks to America's foolhardy adventure in Iraq, is rapidly emerging as a regional power, more capable of shaping political and geopolitical realties in the Middle East than even the US. It is protecting itself from America's pressure on the nuclear issue by creating a dangerous diversion. Already it has succeeded in dividing the G8, with France and Russia condemning Israel for excessive force while the US justified it.
What is the US doing at the moment? First of all, by justifying Israel's excessive use of force the US has immediately distanced itself from the very powers it was seeking friendship with -- the EU and Russia. America's weak response and support of Israel has probably done billions of dollars worth of damage to the public diplomacy campaign that everyone thinks is so vital to win the war on terror.
Muslims all across the world are watching a nuclear power, supported, armed and funded by the US, bombard and kill dozens of innocent civilians, destroy the economy and infrastructure of Palestine and Lebanon, kidnap dozens of elected Palestinian leaders, bomb their homes even when there are children present, and all the US does is provide political cover for Israel in the UN Security Council and on the world stage. Al-Qaeda must be running out of enrolment forms.
The escalation in the region is not in America's interest. It strengthens anti-Americanism worldwide and fuels radicalism in the Arab and Muslim worlds. It also reverses hard earned gains in the region, such as fledgling democracies in Palestine and Lebanon. It is a shame that in moments of crisis American leadership does not take decisive steps to safeguard its own interests. The US does not have to abandon Israel to defend its other interests in the region. All it has to do is use its enormous leverage to ensure that Israel's policies are moderate and prudent and safeguard both Israeli and American interests.
* The writer is an assistant professor at the University of Delaware and a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.


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