The latest Israeli elections resulted in a victory for right-wing parties with 65 seats to 55 seats for centre-right, centre, left and Arab parties. The Likud Party increased its seats from 30 in the 2015 elections to 36 seats in the new Knesset, followed by Kahol Lavan [Blue and White] Party with 35 seats. Accordingly, Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu will be forming the government, and if he succeeds in forming a coalition of right-wing parties, the status quo over the past decade will continue. Netanyahu will be in power for another four years with a narrow coalition that is theoretically threatened with collapse if any parties withdraw, but judging by past events, Netanyahu and his coalition could prove their durability even with a majority of just one seat and comeback power if the coalition is dissolved for any reason. The scene in Israel over the past decade, and perhaps for another decade, can be summarised as: No alternative to the right-wing, no alternative to Netanyahu. Analysing the election results: Right-wing parties lost two seats last week, centrist parties lost 18, left-wing lost one seat and Arab parties lost three seats. Meanwhile, centre-right parties increased their seats by 24, which means the right overall had a marginal loss, centrist parties suffered the largest loss, left-wing and Arab parties saw a partial loss, while centre-right parties made large gains. Theoretically, this means that Israel's political map is partially moving towards the centre-right, but in reality, the rise of this current will remain tentative. Since the 1990s, such parties would emerge, win a substantial number of seats in the first elections they contest, then quickly disintegrate and disappear. The same happened to movements and parties that were formed on the eve of general elections, such as Dash Party in 1977, Centre Party in 1999, Shinui in 2003 and Kadima in 2005. All these parties tended to adopt a political agenda that supports the principles of a market economy, secularising the state and society, accepting a two-state solution, and having harsh conditions to agree to a final political settlement with the Palestinians. Eventually, these parties dissolved after two electoral cycles at most, which could happen to the runner-up party this year, Kahol Lavan. If the party remains strong until the 2023 elections, then what will the next coalitions in the Knesset look like, and how will Likud designate cabinet positions among its potential partners in the new cabinet?
The dilemma of assigning cabinet positions: It is almost certain that Netanyahu will be able to form a new government from the right-wing bloc without major problems, except when it comes to deciding key ministries such as defence, foreign affairs, finance and interior. Parties such as Yisrael Beiteinu will compete for defence and foreign affairs, while finance will be given to the leader of Kulanu Party Moshe Kahlon (the finance minister in the previous cabinet), especially if the party successfully merges with the Likud Party. Meanwhile, Shas will insist on the interior ministry, which gives them control of deciding “who is Jewish”, which is closely related to migration and assimilation. The right-wing coalition (a new creation although formed of existing far right parties) could easily pick up the ministries of education and justice, while United Torah Judaism is not interested in leading any ministries and accepts deputy positions to provide services for their Haredi constituents, who for ideological reasons do not accept senior positions. Rivalry over key ministries has not hindered Netanyahu's ability during his 10 years in power to form successive coalitions, and he was even able to sustain the ruling coalition after the resignation of Avigdor Lieberman as minister of defence and the withdrawal of his party from the coalition in November 2018. The coalition continued with the support of 61 Knesset members for another month until Netanyahu dissolved it in December. Netanyahu will hold onto several ministries, in anticipation of political manoeuvring by his coalition partners to barter for privileges for their constituents or threaten to leave or undermine the coalition. Some parties are skilled in this, especially Shas Party with its eight seats, which will be the point of equilibrium in forming the next coalition and preventing it from collapse if smaller parties such as Kulanu withdraw, if it does not merge with the Likud. In return, Shas will put strong pressure to prevent secular parties in the right-wing front from passing legislation that has already been delayed several times in the past, regarding the conscription of Haredi Jews which will put Netanyahu under serious pressure in the future. As for other parties, such as Yisrael Beiteinu and the Union of Right-Wing Parties with five seats each, they can prevent the formation of a new coalition or dismantle it if either of them withdraws from the government. Netanyahu is not likely to face any major problems since Lieberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, will not repeat the risk of challenging Netanyahu again, since this election has proven that withdrawing from the previous coalition did not impact its existence. His party also lost one of its seats in the elections, perhaps as punishment from voters for withdrawing. Lieberman could accept the position of foreign minister if Netanyahu insists on keeping the defence ministry for himself. The Union of Right-Wing Parties is unlikely to challenge Netanyahu to guarantee it receives the cabinet positions it wants, and because it knows that when Naftali Bennett, the former leader of Jewish Home, challenged Netanyahu, he lost everything including leadership of Jewish Home, which defected from him while his nascent New Right Party was defeated in the elections.
Opposition in the next Knesset is weak and fragmented: So far, Kahol Lavan has not taken a stand regarding leading the opposition in the Knesset or responding to attempts by President Reuven Rivlin to convince it to join a broad government led by Netanyahu. According to Israeli sources, Rivlin wants the two largest parties (Likud and Kahol Lavan) to agree on forming a ruling coalition to stand united in the face of major challenges facing Israel in the future, most notably addressing the “deal of the century” that US President Donald Trump intends to unveil in summer. Also, security threats caused by Iran's expansionism, continued pursuit of a nuclear alternative, and developing a long-range missile system. The Kahol Lavan coalition comprised of Yesh Atid Party led by Yair Lapid, the Israel Resilience Party led by Benny Gantz, and key military figures such as Moshe Yaalon and Gabi Ashkenazi, may not last long since Gantz did not strongly object to joining a coalition led by Netanyahu, while Lapid detests the idea and prefers to remain in the opposition. Thus, if Netanyahu succeeds in winning Gantz to his side and entices him with the defence ministry (and perhaps deputy prime minister), the Kahol Lavan coalition could quickly collapse, since Lapid and Yaalon would leave the bloc because they are unlikely to work within a coalition led by Netanyahu. If Gantz, who leads Kahol Lavan, chooses to remain in the opposition he will face the same problems as the Zionist camp after the 2015 elections. At the time, the opposition bloc inside the Knesset was ineffective because it was fragmented between marginal left-wing parties such as Meretz (which has a different ideology than centre and centre-right parties) or isolated parties due to the sectarian nature of Israel (a state for Jews), such as Arab parties which none of the Zionist parties want to partner with, inside or outside the Knesset. Or declining parties, such as Labour, which will either melt into Kahol Lavan or take the risk of standing alone without any influence until they completely collapse, perhaps in the next elections. The Israeli elections did not create a new reality. The right will rule for another four years, and perhaps longer even if the next ruling coalition does not last. The only course of action for the opposition, in the form of the Kahol Lavan bloc, is to maintain its cohesion for as long as it can in the hope that Israeli courts will successfully indict Netanyahu for corruption and abuse of power. At such a time, this would not only be the end of Netanyahu, but also the right-wing bloc after a sustained decade of “No right without Netanyahu”, and no powerful opposition capable of replacing the right in Netanyahu's absence, even if it's due to a court verdict rather than politicking.
