Netanyahu's impressive victory in the Israeli elections doesn't augur well for peace in this region. The Israeli prime minister is now in a position to form an all right-wing government that pursues settlement, grabs land from the Palestinians, puts talks on hold and generally scuttles all previous deals envisioning a two-state solution. The victory of the Netanyahu-led Likud and other right-wing parties in the 20th Knesset elections, held on 17 March, raise concerns among Palestinians that a negotiated peace deal is little more than a mirage. Both the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Gaza-based Hamas reacted with pessimism to the results of the elections. During his election campaign, Netanyahu promised his supporters a hard-line policy toward the Palestinians. He voiced his opposition to a divided Jerusalem, to withdrawal from the West Bank and to a Palestinian state. Palestinian analysts say that Netanyahu's victory will send the whole peace process back to square one. Talks foundered 18 months ago, when Netanyahu blocked them with his policies on Israel's Jewishness, and his refusal to release veteran prisoners who had been incarcerated since 1993. Analysts expect Netanyahu to escalate his confrontational policies towards the Palestinians, undermine future talks and grab more land for settlements in the West Bank. Analyst Tawfiq Abu Shomar says that the new government will “destroy once and for all anything remaining from the Oslo Accords.” The Israelis are likely to resume the right-wing policies of the 1970s, when Israel denied the existence of the Palestinians, refused to discuss the future of Jerusalem and tolerated extremists who see settlement in the West Bank as a “religious duty.” “The ideas held by Netanyahu and the rest of the far right will now be put to practice,” Abu Shomar said. “Unless the Palestinians obstruct this project we will be heading to disaster.” Israel's far right parties won a total of 67 of 120 Knesset seats. Likud received 30 seats, ahead of the Zionist Union led by Isaac Herzog, which won 24 seats. The Arab Joint List came third with 13 seats. The centrist Yesh Atid of former finance minister Yair Lapid came fourth with 11 seats, followed by Kulanu, led by Likud dissident Moshe Kahlon. In sixth place came the right-wing Jewish Home of Naftali Benett with eight seats, followed by Shas, a religious party led by Aryeh Deri, with seven. Another religious party, Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, won six seats, while the left-wing Meretz secured five seats. The next Israeli government is likely to focus on two things. One is to drive a wedge between Gaza and the West Bank. The other is to assert the Jewishness of Israel through a bid to swap densely populated Arab areas in Israel with major settlement areas in the West Bank. In particular, the Israeli right-wing wants to trade the area known as Al-Muthallath, or the triangle, and Wadi Ara with major Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The triangle and Wadi Ara are home to nearly 300,000 Palestinians who hold Israeli nationality. It is part of what the Palestinians refer to as the 1948 territories. Gaza, a highly emotive issue during the elections, is going to be a top priority for a Netanyahu-led government. Observers expect Netanyahu to try to find a way to pacify Gaza, perhaps through a long-term truce deal with Hamas. The Israeli elections placed the Ramallah-based government in a difficult position. “If you have a right-wing government, there is no hope to launch a new round of talks. But if the government is one of national unity, through a coalition between Netanyahu and Herzog, then the talks will be resumed, which may spare Israel international sanctions,” Abu Shomar said. The PA has threatened to join more international treaties and organisations and stop security coordination with the occupation authorities unless peace talks are back on track. Abu Shomar doesn't expect much to come of that. “Such threats are made with the Americans, who sponsor the peace talks, in mind, and their outcome depends on what kind of pressure the Americans bring to bear,” he said. The PA said that it is prepared to deal with any future Israeli government as long as the latter is committed to a two-state solution and all relevant UN resolutions. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, in a meeting held by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) Executive Committee a week ago, voiced concern over Israeli statements dismissive of the two-state solution. “If this is true, this means that the Israeli government is not serious about a political solution that leads to the creation of two states, that recognises international law, that accepts a Palestinian state on 1967 borders with Jerusalem as its capital, and that seeks to resolve all other pending issues,” Abbas said. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that the outcome of Israeli elections validates the decision of the Palestinians to join international treaties and organisations, including the International Criminal Court. In a press statement issued Saturday, Erekat said that the international community and those EU countries that have not recognised a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, and also the US, must do so at once. Hamas reacted to the elections with nonchalance, saying that the Israelis were never serious about peace. Ismail Haniyeh, deputy chairman of the Hamas politburo, said: “We were not surprised by the outcome of the Israeli elections because the religious and political context of the [Israeli] entity leads to such results.” After 21 years of negotiations between the PA and Israel, this is what it has come to, Haniyeh said. “Netanyahu now says no to a Palestinian state, no to negotiations, no to Jerusalem, and no to the return of refugees.” Declared Haniyeh, “Those who place their hopes on the occupier are chasing a mirage.” Speaking to the Israeli media ahead of the elections, Netanyahu said: “There will be no Palestinian state on my watch.” But Netanyahu seemed to backpedal after his win. Speaking to the US radio station NPR, the Israeli leader said that he is willing to endorse a Palestinian state that is disarmed and recognises Israel. “I talked about two states, where a demilitarised Palestinian state recognises the Jewish state, and I stand by that. I haven't retracted my position. I haven't changed it,” he said. Netanyahu added, “I had laid out very clearly what my conditions were for a two-state solution in the 2009 speech I gave at Bar-Ilan University. And I haven't changed. I haven't retracted that speech at all. “I said that the implementation of that vision is not relevant right now because of ... the decision of the leadership of the Palestinian Authority last year to forge a pact with Hamas, which is a terrorist organisation that works for our destruction.”
