اقرأ باللغة العربية Since the crisis began in early June 2017, Germany has not taken a position condemning the policies of Qatar in the region, nor supporting the economic and diplomatic measures taken by the Arab Quartet (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt) against Qatar. On 9 June, Sigmar Gabriel, the German foreign minister, said that Qatar is considered a “strategic partner” in counter-terrorism, while at the same time the Arab Quartet denounced Doha's policies in support of Al-Nusrah Front, the Muslim Brotherhood and other terrorist organisations. Gabriel also said in a statement during a meeting with the European Council on Foreign Relations on 26 June 2017 that the 13 demands identified by the Arab Quartet are very provocative because they affect Qatari sovereignty. The German position can be justified by a number of factors. The first is Germany's tendency towards an active Middle East policy during the current phase linked to specific issues, namely Iran's nuclear programme and the fight against terrorism emanating from the Middle East, immigration and refugees from conflict areas, as well as the opening up of regional markets to encourage investment and German arms sales. The second is Germany's economic interests with Qatar. According to the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), Doha has about $338 billion invested in different sectors in Europe. In Germany, in particular, Qatar invests a total of $18 billion in the automotive, banking and energy industries. The third factor relates to the network of relations that Qatar has managed to integrate with the Western media, think tanks and decision-making circles in Europe over the past years, that promoted the idea that Qatar is a state that supports change and liberalism, despite the rigidity of the process of political reform within Qatar. The fourth factor is the realisation that there is a ceiling for escalation against Qatar, especially by the three Gulf States; this ceiling falls short of military action, as the Saudi foreign minister stressed on, in more than one occasion. There is also a belief that the settlement of this crisis will come through negotiations and dialogue between the Gulf States and within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council. None of this prompts Germany to come forward and propose a settlement. All these factors should make Arab Quartet countries consider carefully escalatory measures against Qatar in the absence not only of German but also Western support for these measures. The writer is a senior researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
