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Qatar: Towards tougher sanctions
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 07 - 2017


اقرأ باللغة العربية
Details of Qatar's response to the demands of the quartet of countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain) that initiated a boycott against it have not yet been disclosed. After Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohamed bin Abdel-Rahman Al-Thani handed his government's response to Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed, who has been acting as mediator, Kuwait asked for a two-day extension to the grace period. Meanwhile conjectures vary. One foresees continued attempts on the part of Doha to wriggle its way out of the predicament. Another maintains that Doha will ultimately cave in and change its position. A third suggests that the Kuwaiti emir personally asked for the extension and that the quartet agreed in anticipation of the meeting of the foreign ministers of these four countries in Cairo Wednesday in order to settle the crisis. On the other hand, many politicians and analysts hold out little hope for an imminent settlement and, instead, anticipate further escalation on both sides.
Qatari statements and behaviour during the initial grace period strongly suggested an inclination to dig in its heels. The Qatari foreign minister, in a press conference in Rome, stated that the “four siege countries” prepared demands that were meant to be rejected. Qatar's Minister of Defence Khaled bin Mohamed Al-Attiyah described the actions undertaken by the quartet as a “coup” attempt. Also, although there was never a question of a military scenario against Qatar, Doha inserted it into the picture. It appears that it had prepared for this from the outset as troops from the Turkish base there were deployed, flouting the quartet's demand that Qatar dismantle the Turkish military presence there. Moreover, 600 more Turkish reinforcements were brought in, notching up expectations of escalation in this direction. In addition to the foregoing, the Qatari media apparatus, which the quartet had expected Doha to rein in during the grace period, moved in the opposite, escalatory direction. In short, Qatar has signalled that it will reject the list of demands.
Moataz Salama, director of the Gulf Studies Unit at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, sees no sign of a solution on the horizon. “Qatar is pressing ahead in the course it has set for itself. It has made up its mind that it will not accede to the demands. All its actions at present are forms of manoeuvring as it readies itself for the next phase of new sanctions against it since it is determined to persist in its strategy which is essentially based on its hostility, albeit in varying degrees, towards the four members of the quartet. This strategy has its roots in the Muslim Brotherhood mentality that plays a basic role in Doha's strategic thinking. The consequences will be disastrous for Qatar in the long run. While it might be able to manage in the short term, it will not be able to hold out afterwards.”
The international powers that have attempted to intervene in the crisis from the outset, including the US, Russia and some European countries, have all consistently favoured efforts to reach a solution. They have also agreed, using fairly similar formulas, to the principle that Qatar must cease its funding of terrorism which, effectively, constitutes an explicit collective international acknowledgement that Qatar is, indeed, guilty of this charge. German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, the most recent diplomatic mediator at the time this report was filed, told a press conference following a meeting with his Saudi counterpart Adel Al-Jubeir in Jeddah that “an agreement to prevent terrorism financing in the region would be the best way of solving a crisis.” Al-Jubeir, in the same press conference, said that Riyadh and its allies hoped for a “positive” response from Doha to the list of demands (indicating that he had not yet seen the response that the Qatari foreign minister had submitted to Kuwait that morning) and added that “he would study the Qatari response closely before taking any decisions.”
Al-Jubeir also said that Saudi Arabia and Germany were in agreement about stopping the financing of terrorism, the support of extremism, incitement to hatred and intervention in the affairs of neighbouring states. He stressed that the “purpose of the measures against Qatar is to compel it to alter its policies that are harmful to the region and to the world”.
Prior to that conference, US President Donald Trump phoned Saudi King Salman bin Abdel-Aziz Al-Saud to discuss the situation. “Interesting things are happening!” Trump tweeted afterwards.
White House officials reported that Trump spoke separately by phone Sunday with the Saudi king, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan of Abu Dhabi, and Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani of Qatar. In the course of these conversations, the White House said, Trump “reiterated the importance of stopping terrorist financing and discrediting extremist ideology”. He also “restated his goals from his visit to the region in May of defeating terrorism and promoting regional stability”, the White House statement said, adding that “President Trump, nevertheless, believes that the overriding objective of his initiative is the cessation of funding for terrorism.”
Other political figures involved in the crisis predict escalation and tougher measures against Qatar. According to UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Mohamed Qarqash, there will be a gradual increase of economic pressures on Qatar in the forthcoming “separation” stage, as he labelled it. He also expected a more active US and European role in the process, including measures to monitor financial transactions from Qatar, especially the part of organisations included in the terrorist list, and punitive measures against Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi individuals cited by the four quartet members in the preliminary sanctions list. In addition, the UAE minister said that a series of measures need to be taken against the Qatari media and Al-Jazeera above all.


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