Hizbullah's recent military spectacle in the Syrian city of Qusayr has provoked on the true nature and timing of this imaginary tour de force. Most of the media fuss that this incident generated focussed on Hizbullah's display of two somewhat archaic American-made armoured personnel carriers (APC M113). Consequently, this led some misinformed sources to accuse the Lebanese army of misusing American military aid and funnelling these weapons to the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia. But this interpretation is largely a red herring as it misses the real implications of this not-so-innocent military pageant: Hizbullah, fully immersed in the ongoing Syrian conflict, is in dire need of such displays to justify the casualties it is sustaining. The start of the recent assault on Aleppo has noticeably increased the numbers of caskets of fallen Hizbullah fighters returning to their villages to be laid to rest, making such a parade all the more pressing. Consequently, and faced with this somewhat bleak and absurd sequence of events, Hizbullah's senior leadership, by organising this Soviet-era parade, wished to address its people and urge them to further commit to the ongoing struggle that would ultimately yield a final victory, similar to the one they won in Qusayr in 2013.
A REMINDER TO HARIRI: More importantly, perhaps, is the choice of location, as Hizbullah's win in Qusayr three years ago was to secure its eastern flank in Lebanon and to stop attacks on the many pro-Hizbullah Shia villages across the border. This is particularly relevant as it is a reminder to the next Lebanese prime minister, Saad Al-Hariri, of the inevitability of recognising Hizbullah's role as the country's protector against foreign elements, be they Israeli or, in the case of Qusayr, Syrian. Successive Lebanese cabinets have always recognised Hizbullah as being a legitimate defender of the Lebanese people. However, this has been seriously compromised as a result of Hizbullah's transgressions both locally and in Syria and Yemen, as it has clearly implemented its Iranian agenda. It is no coincidence that some of Hizbullah's mouthpieces have recently flooded the media demanding that the upcoming ministerial platform clearly reaffirms the so-called Lebanese trinity of “People, Army, Resistance.” Despite its obvious disregard for state sovereignty, Hizbullah still needs the various state institutions, primarily parliament and the cabinet, to hide behind a facade of legitimacy which it exploits to advance its military endeavour. Be that as it may, Naim Qasim, Hizbullah deputy secretary general, was quoted by As-Safir daily as saying, “now we have a trained army which is as a clear message from Hizbullah to everyone.” Despite retracting its statement, Hizbullah made its message abundantly clear: Regardless of any domestic change with the election of Michel Aoun as president, or even the upcoming Trump administration, it will be business as usual for them.
A RELIEF FOR ISRAEL: While some have speculated that Hizbullah's transformation into a regular mechanised fighting force poses a direct threat to Israel, facts and past precedent indicate the complete opposite. Hizbullah's ability to inflict damage on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) during the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon and in the 2006 war was possible because the group had mastered asymmetric warfare and guerrilla tactics. Despite its ranking as the 16th most capable and equipped army globally, the IDF failed to destroy Hizbullah mainly because of its inability to confront the group in a classical military manner, as the former has refrained from fielding tanks or even using regular fortification in its tactics. Just recently, IDF command declared that its units are training to adapt to Hizbullah's battle doctrine, which from past confrontations meant fighting in urban terrains against a bunkered down enemy who hides and fights underground. So, in fact, the Hizbullah parade comes as somewhat of a relief to the Israelis whose superior firepower and air force can neutralise this kind of threat swiftly and with minimal casualties to its infantry. In 1982, in the course of invading Lebanon, the IDF destroyed the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organisation) military infrastructure mainly because the Palestinian command took the direction of symmetric warfare, a fact of which Hizbullah is well aware.
THE CROW AND THE EAGLE: In practical terms, Qusayr is Hizbullah's way of implicitly informing Israel that, at the moment, they are fully engaged in the Syrian quagmire and thus there is no risk of any conflict breaking out in South Lebanon. However, to assume that Hizbullah can easily pick up its previous guerrilla tactics again is perhaps fallacious. It would require years of training and resources, which will not be available when they eventually return from their Syrian escapade. The Qusayr parade is therefore very much similar to the anecdote of the crow who wanted to imitate the eagle who was able to soar high in the sky before striking down to attack its pray. When the crow tried to copy the eagle, he soon realised that he did not possess the skills — but it was too late as he crashed and broke his neck. Hizbullah might think that the Syrian war has made it even stronger and more capable of imposing its will on Lebanon and perhaps the region. But events have proven time and again that battles are not won on the battlefield alone and, indeed, the crow can never be an eagle. The writer is the author of A Campus at War: Student Politics at the American University of Beirut, 1967-1975 and a regular columnist for Now Lebanon.
