Russia has warned that the whole Middle East, and not just Syria, would be engulfed by an earthquake if the US attempted an offensive against the Syrian army in order to topple the Bashar Al-Assad regime. Such a dangerous and precipitous action would enable terrorist groups to come into power not just in Damascus but in other countries of the region as well. Washington, for its part, suspended its contacts with Moscow over arrangements for a political process and securing the truce that effectively collapsed two weeks ago. Meanwhile, gruelling battles continue around and over Aleppo, especially the western portion of the city that is controlled by militia groups aligned with Ankara and Washington. Among these are Al-Qaeda affiliated groups such as Al-Nusra Front which, for cosmetic purposes, formally severed its ties with Al-Qaeda a couple of months ago. To the north, Turkey's Euphrates Shield operation continues its drive to create a 30 to 40-kilometre-wide buffer zone to prevent the presence of any Syrian Kurdish forces west of the Euphrates and to establish a foothold preparatory to further penetration into Syrian territory. Turkey is simultaneously gearing up for a military operation inside Iraq, ostensibly to take part in liberating Mosul from Daesh (the Islamic State group). Such developments inside Syria and Iraqare inseparable from conflicting perceptions and plans not just with regard to the future of Syria but that of the entire region. These plans are heavily influenced by current tensions at the global level that we might regard as a small earthquake unfolding before our eyes although it is not stirring alarm or the attention it merits. Moreover, some Arab regimes are deliberately contributing to this earthquake without pausing to assess how it might impact upon them and, indeed, their very existence. Earthquakes are a violent natural phenomenon that cause enormous upheaval, sometimes causing a new layer of ground to be gorged up from the belly of the earth, burying the previously visible layer deep below. While in Pakistan in 2008 I took a trip to the state of Azad Kashmir. A mid-sized earthquake had just occurred three months before that. During our ascent in that rugged mountainous territory I noticed that the terrain had two sharply contrasting colours, one as white as snow and the other very dark due to exposure to the sun for thousands of years. When I asked my Pakistani escort, he responded quite simply that the recent earthquake had turned the mountain inside-out: The interior was thrown up to the surface while entire villages with their inhabitants, trees, buildings and roads were swallowed up, leaving only vestiges of rubble. If we can imagine a political or military earthquake of that magnitude in Syria, as Russia warns and as concrete signs portend, then the entire region is truly at an extremely perilous juncture. What we see now is the old dark surface of the mountain. We need to be on guard for what could be disgorged from the unknown depths. Among the ominous signs are reports that Washington plans a military intervention to support what it calls the “moderate armed Syrian opposition” in a drive against government forces, not just in Aleppo but also in Damascus. The support would include furnishing opposition militias with qualitative weaponry, such as anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, in sufficient quantities to bring down Bashar Al-Assad and his regime. At that point, it will be impossible to envision anything for the “new” Syria under the control of those militia groups but rampant anarchy and destruction. Most likely those groups will plunge into a morass of existential conflicts between them that neither the US, Turkey or even the whole of NATO will be able to contain. Syria as a territorial entity will be lost for good. It will be divided and fragmented with large portions under Turkish occupation and other portions controlled by Iran and its allies. Most likely, Iraq, too, will erupt again, but in an even more chaotic and bloodier conflagration that will also spill over into Syria. If that horrifying eruption occurs, Russian national security will not be spared from harm. The Russian military intervention in the Syrian crisis — now a year old — may resemble the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. We do not underestimate the Russians' ability to read and learn the lessons from history, but it is still important to draw attention to the current deterioration in Russian-US relations, which brings to mind images of the Cold War that lasted from the end of World War II until the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the 1980s. On 27 September, the US secretary of defence announced that his country would invest $108 billion over the next five years in order to modernise the American nuclear arsenal in order to confront Russian and North Korean threats. More ominously, he added that the fact that nuclear weapons had not been used since 1945 is an achievement in its own right but that it should not be taken for granted. The defence secretary thus warned the entire world, and not just Russia and North Korea, that the US could use nuclear weapons again, regardless of the appalling and long-term consequences of these weapons of mass destruction. Another American military official added that Washington would not relinquish the first nuclear strike option if necessary in order to safeguard US security. More simply put, American strategy calls for a nuclear offensive. Russia is fully aware of how American decision-making circles think. Last year, the Americans deployed more nuclear weapons in Germany — small nuclear bombs that are designed for tactical purposes in wars of limited geographic scope. Moscow charged that Washington was playing with fire. Just last week, President Putin announced that Russia had decided to suspend a nuclear disarmament treaty signed with the US in 2000 in response to American threats against the Russian Federation. The agreement, which was renewed in 2010, called on both sides to eliminate their surplus stocks of weapons-grade plutonium, which were estimated at 34 tons. Moscow claims that, while it has met its obligations under the agreement, Washington has not fulfilled its side of the bargain. Due to the lack of reciprocity in meeting commitments, Russia is now less capable of developing its nuclear arsenal at a time when Washington openly boasts of pouring unimaginable sums of money into a comprehensive upgrade of its own nuclear capacities. When we place the Syrian situation into the larger context of tensions between Moscow and Washington, it is not difficult to realise that any political-military earthquake in Syria will not be confined to the borders of the Middle East. Its tremors will spread to every corner of the world. That the very prospect of such an inhuman catastrophe has become so palpably real is testimony to the boundless arrogance of imperial power.
