Throughout the second term of President Barack Obama a broad debate developed examining the status and influence of the US in the Middle East. The prevailing argument has been that the US presence in the region is retreating. Fawaz Gerges, a scholar on American foreign policy and the Middle East, summarised this concept when he wrote a book titled Obama and the Middle East: The End of America's Moment? Obama's Republican critics adapted this concept, stating that the Obama administration's weakness and reluctance in dealing with the region's troubles led to a weakening of the US's status. This encouraged other powers — particularly Russia and Iran — to extend their presence and become the main players in deciding the region's developments. In the view of this, former US allies such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt approached Russia and developed relations in vital areas like arms and energy. The US strategy of “redirection” — focussing on East Asia as a zone of strategic and economic promise — suggested diminishing US interest in the Middle East. Susan Rice, the US national security adviser, publicly declared, “We can't remain captured to one area,” meaning the Middle East. Analysts tried to justify Obama's policies in the Middle East by arguing that an American retreat was a necessity in a time of uncertainty for the American economy. According to this view, the US — as with Great Britain before it — fell victim to “imperial overreach”. Obama, for his part, has denied that the American presence and role in the region is declining. In a televised interview with Steven Kraft on 21 October 2015, Obama asserted that the US still has an enormous presence in the Middle East, including bases for aircraft carriers, pilots continually in the region's skies, and the US in Iraq, help to build its army. Obama's secretary of defence, Ashton Carter, in comparing the Russian and American presence in Syria, said that while Russia has 60 aircraft active the US has 1,000. Obama responded to critics of his administration saying, “If our only measure is to dispatch 1,000,000 or 200,000 forces to Syria, or again to Iraq, or maybe to Yemen or Libya ... this is a bad strategy. If we committed this mistake again the shame will be on us.” Obama added in his latest interview with The Atlantic magazine, “Dropping bombs just to prove that you can do that is the worse reason to use power.” In all cases, the debate on the US presence in the Middle East and the range of American interventions will continue after Obama's departure. If there is a difference in the approach of the coming administration, the difference will be on details. The realities that decided Obama's policies will impose themselves on his successors, whether Democrat or Republican. The writer is former executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
