It is not exactly a predictable race, although many expect Beji Caid Essebsi, leader of the country's Nidaa Tounes Party, to lead the pack in Sunday's presidential elections in Tunisia. It will be the first genuinely pluralistic presidential contest in the country's history. There is also the chance of a run-off in December between Essebsi and a runner-up, most likely the current interim President Moncef Marzouki, observers say. Of the 27 candidates running for the country's top office, only one or two can offer a serious challenge to the octogenarian Essebsi, who has been campaigning vigorously all over the country and telling his supporters that “age is a state of mind.” But what worries Essebsi's critics most is not his age but his association with the legacy of Habib Bourguiba, the country's first president. Bourguiba may have favoured modernity and secularism but he was never a supporter of freedom and democracy. Tunisia's political scene has grown more complex since the 14 January 2011 Revolution, which had a domino effect across the region, triggering regime changes in Egypt, Libya and Yemen and fomenting what has become a civil war in Syria. Opinion polls were banned during the recent election campaign. But even before the campaign started, pollsters were ruling out the possibility that any of the candidates would claim 50 per cent or more of the vote in the first round. According to pollsters, Essebsi is ahead with nearly one third of the potential vote, with Marzouki in second place with about one fourth. The way Tunisians voted in the legislative elections three weeks ago suggests that there are two major voting blocs in the country. The first, which has rallied around Nidaa Tounes, is about 1.3 million voters strong, equal to about 26 per cent of registered voters or 38 per cent of actual voters. Tunisia has five million registered voters, but only 3.5 million turned up for the recent poll. Some of the voters who supported Nidaa Tounes may be “seasonal” voters, however, opting for a secular party in order to punish the Islamist Ennahda Party for its flawed performance in office. And Essebsi's critics say that his election could endanger democracy in the country by giving Nidaa Tounes control of the parliament and the presidency. Essebsi, 88, was a minister under Bourguiba and the parliamentary speaker under the ousted regime of former president Zein Al-Abidine Ben Ali. He launched his presidential bid from Bourguiba's coastal hometown of Monastir, underlining his credentials as a secular candidate who would restrict the power of the Islamists. The second bloc is that of Ennahda, which has promised not to field candidates for the presidency and has also declined to back any particular candidate. Pollsters put the size of this bloc at one million voters, equal to 20 per cent of registered voters or 28 per cent of actual voters in the recent legislative elections. Ennahda's supporters remain energetic and disciplined, but their leaders have been playing things safe. Instead of pushing for more power they are now seeking either a coalition with Nidaa or a government of technocrats with consensual backing. Ennahda, some observers say, may end up winning the speakership of the parliament as a reward for its conciliatory policies. Many Ennahda supporters, especially the young, are likely to vote for Marzouki, 66. He is a human rights activist and was an ally of Ennahda during the two years of so-called troika coalition rule that followed the 2011 Revolution. During the campaign Marzouki has claimed to be the country's buffer against totalitarianism and restoration of the old regime. Nearly one third of the vote is hard to predict, however. These undeclared voters are being hotly pursued by several powerful candidates, many of them powerful businessmen with charisma and well-funded campaigns. Only one woman is running in the elections. Kaltoum Kennou, a judge and former head of the country's Judges Association, is running on a platform of gender equality and public freedoms. She may attract women voters in urban areas and among the educated classes. Hamma Hammami, leader of the left-wing Popular Front, is another powerful contender. His party came in fourth in the recent legislative elections, and he is held in great esteem as a “revolutionary candidate.” Hammami has refused to receive financial compensation for the years of imprisonment and torture he endured during Ben Ali's rule. Kamel Morjani, the last foreign minister during Ben Ali's rule, is seen as one of the leading candidates of the old regime. A well-spoken and influential figure, he may take some of the votes that otherwise would have gone to Essebsi. Slim Riahi, a young businessman and football club owner, led his Free Patriotic Union to third place in the legislative elections, and has a certain appeal among the young and working classes. Geographical backgrounds may also play a role in the upcoming elections, with the well-educated and more affluent constituencies in the coastal areas favouring Essebsi, who is also from the north of the country, and the more impoverished regions of the south voting for Marzouki, who is a southerner. Former president Ben Ali rule ruled the country for 23 years, during which he won two elections, held in 1989 and 1994, with 99 per cent of the vote. When he allowed multi-party elections to take place in his final decade, he pulled in two wins in 2004 and 2009, with 94 and 89 per cent of the vote, respectively. This time around, whoever wins in the presidential elections will have to have done so in a genuine competition between actual candidates. The winner will also not have anything like the sweeping powers Ben Ali once enjoyed. In domestic affairs, the prime minister and the parliament will be in charge, with the president asserting his authority mostly in matters of foreign policy and defence. Tunisia has already changed, not just in formal politics, but also in the way its media behave. There is now no trace of the cult of personality that Bourguiba and Ben Ali once used to their advantage. In fact, of all the candidates in this election, current interim president Marzouki has been the most criticised by the country's media.
