The Middle East has been the scene of frantic diplomatic activity in the second half of June to forestall the fall of Baghdad into the hands of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that made clear after it seized Mosul, the second largest Iraqi city, 10 June that it is determined to advance towards the capital, and on to Karbala afterwards — a development that would certainly plunge not only Iraq but also the whole Middle East into unlimited and unchecked turmoil. International, regional and Arab powers have raced against time to try to find a political solution to the grave crisis of governance that is facing Iraq under the premiership of Nouri Al-Maliki, whose coalition won the greater number of seats (92) in parliamentary elections held 30 April 2014, but short of the majority that could enable him to form the next Iraqi government (163 seats). During the last two weeks, news media around the world have dealt with the situation in Iraq from only one side; namely, the sudden and swift advance of ISIS forces. But the situation, whether militarily or politically, is more complicated than this version of facts on the ground. The military gains made against the Iraqi army last month are not solely the work of ISIS. Many officials and experts around the world believe, and rightly so, that what we are witnessing in Iraq is a large Sunni uprising against Al-Maliki and both his sectarian and authoritarian style of rule. A third mandate as a prime minister has been simply out of the question, not only for Sunnis, but also for Kurds, as well as some leading Shia leaders. While the political situation in Iraq was becoming mired in a dangerous stalemate, the overall situation in Syria was not getting any better, with its understandable impact on Lebanese politics. Early June, President Bashar Al-Assad was re-elected president for a seven-year period, whereas Lebanese parties have persistently failed to agree on their next president. The position has been vacant from 25 May 2014, the day former Lebanese President Michel Suleiman left office upon the constitutional end of his term in office. He adamantly refused to stay on the job a day longer, for reasons related to the democratic exercise of power in his country. From Iraq to Lebanon, passing through Syria, the stalemate provided ISIS with the opportunity to entrench its positions wherever it had a foothold, in Syria and Iraq, and to expand westwards to Lebanon. Its victory in controlling Mosul and then Tikrit — the birthplace of late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein — made its appeal more attractive to militants in the Middle East and the Gulf region. Jordan saw demonstrations in support of this terrorist group and pro-ISIS graffiti popped up in Saudi Arabia, of all places. Even in places like Egypt there are some signs that suggest that the terrorist organisation has succeeded in recruiting members. The United States has been the major diplomatic player in international and regional efforts aimed at defusing the gathering storm. Two weeks after the fall of Mosul, US Secretary of State John Kerry went on a tour that took him to the Middle East and Europe, from 22-27 June, where he visited Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Brussels, Paris, and Saudi Arabia, where he met the Saudi king. Prior to the tour, US President Barack Obama had outlined the position of his administration as far as handling the situation in Iraq is concerned. The US president ruled out sending troops to Iraq. He said the United States would send 300 military advisors to help the Iraqi army in its efforts to regain territory it lost to Sunni insurgents and help them defend the capital against any attacks by insurgents. Some of those advisors have already arrived. Meanwhile, President Obama coupled this offer with a call for a political solution to the Iraqi crisis. The US administration has called for the formation of a more inclusive government that would represent all Iraqis. As a matter of fact, one of the basic aims of the tour of Secretary of State Kerry was to try to convince everyone — whether within Iraq or in the Middle East and the Gulf — that those who have an influence on the unfolding events in Iraq, be it on the Sunni or Shia side, should work towards the formation of such a government, on the one hand, and cooperate in defeating ISIS on the other. To reach such an outcome, which is a prerequisite to contain ISIS, the Saudis have to reign in the Sunnis and the Iranians have to accept another candidate for the position of prime minister in Iraq instead of Al-Maliki. Diplomatic and political manoeuvring has centred on finding a suitable candidate who would be accepted by everyone. The Kurds made clear to Kerry when he visited Irbil that they would not deal with Al-Maliki. Diplomatic efforts were indirectly supported by the call of Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani Friday, 27 June, for all Iraqi political parties to name the next three presidents in Iraq. That is, the president from among the Kurds, the speaker of parliament, who should be Sunni, and the prime minister, who should come from the Shia side. As for the latter, there is a growing consensus among most Shia leaders that Al-Maliki should go, in order to save Iraq from disintegration and anarchy. Al-Maliki himself has been bracing for a protracted political battle, with his persistence not to leave office on the grounds that his coalition won the parliamentary elections. The gridlock gripping the Middle East is a direct result of the war by proxy between Iran and Saudi Arabia across the Middle East and the Gulf region. This explains the explosive stalemate from Iraq to Lebanon and Syria. If international diplomatic efforts succeed in defusing the Iraqi crisis it would bode well for the entire Middle East. Recent events in Iraq and the growing threat of ISIS to the security and territorial integrity of Arab countries should encourage the Arabs to move towards rethinking their strategic priorities for the years to come. In this context, it should be obvious by now the linkages between the various crises that have undermined the stability and security of Middle Eastern countries in the last couple of years. It is high time for Arab diplomacy to get into high gear and start finding long-term solutions for deep-seated Arab crises. I believe that if the Arab countries had been more forceful in dealing with these crises from the outset, we would not have reached this point, allowing non-regional powers to have such a great say in Arab affairs. The writer is former assistant to the foreign minister.
