In many countries, opinion polls are a significant way of testing the public's opinion about national and domestic issues, and they can play a role in rousing discussion of public affairs by focusing attention on current issues. However, while such polls often grab people's attention, some of them may not be accurate. The Egyptian Centre for Public Opinion Research (Baseera) conducted a poll in all the country's governorates between 24 and 26 March, in which it spoke to 2,034 people over the age of 18 via landline and mobile phone. The survey was conducted shortly after former minister of defence Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi had announced his intention to run in the presidential elections. The response rate was approximately 61 per cent and the margin of error less than three per cent. Estimates of the respondents' social grouping was based on ownership of durable goods. According to the poll, 82 per cent of Egyptians signaled their intention to vote in the upcoming presidential elections, while 12 per cent had no intention of participating and six per cent were uncertain. The Baseera poll revealed that 72 per cent of voters would vote for Al-Sisi, one per cent would vote for Hamdeen Sabahi and the rest had not decided. Another poll in April revealed that 51 per cent of voters would vote for Al-Sisi. “42 per cent of those who would vote for Al-Sisi come from urban areas, while 36 per cent are from rural areas. Men are more likely to vote for Al-Sisi than women, at 41 per cent and 36 per cent, respectively,” the poll results said. “People over 50 are more likely to vote for Al-Sisi at 43 per cent than those aged 18-29 who constituted 37 per cent of the sample,” the Baseera poll revealed. It also said that 26 per cent of voters were undecided and 23 per cent would vote for Sabahi. Another poll conducted by the independent Ibn Khaldoun Centre for Development Studies showed that 84 per cent of respondents would vote for Al-Sisi and 16 per cent for Sabahi. Another opinion poll conducted by Zogby Research Services found that 76 per cent would vote for Al-Sisi, while 10 per cent would vote for Sabahi and the remaining 14 per cent were undecided. According to Ali Leila, a professor of sociology at Ain Shams University in Cairo, the polls are poor indicators of people's opinion, however. “These polls can mislead undecided voters by falsely portraying the same candidates as ‘top competitors' at the expense of others. They are apt to make eligible voters believe that these ‘top competitors' are the only candidates that have a chance to win the presidential elections, supporting their popularity,” he said. Egypt has seen the growth of polls since the 25 January Revolution. However, according to Adel Abdel-Ghaffar, a professor at Cairo University's Mass Communication Faculty, few genuinely scientific centres undertake these polls and properly interpret the results. “Among these centres are Cairo University and the National Centre for Sociological and Criminological Research (NCSCR). Other centres do not necessarily have the same level of credibility,” he said. Leila disagreed, however, saying that in his view the recent polls did not mirror the views of society. “The samples on which the polls are based are very small, and they cannot be considered to accurately represent even one governorate. How can a sample of fewer than 3,000 people represent the whole of society,” he asked. According to the latest census conducted by CAPMAS, the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics, Egypt's population is more than 90 million, among them eight million living abroad. “How can a few thousands represent millions? A scientific sample should not be less than 10 per cent of the population,” Leila said, adding that the opinion polls had failed to predict the outcome of the 2012 presidential elections. Ahmed Nagui Qamha of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies who has worked on the previous polls, disagreed with Leila, stating that the opinion polls released in Egypt's first free presidential elections were a reflection of public opinion. “The samples were carefully selected in order to represent all of the society's different social and economic levels. At the same time, the polling questionnaires were drawn up according to scientific methodologies,” he stated. Qamha said that the polls were not biased to any of the candidates, were usually scientifically conducted and were financed by known agencies.
