“Odessans' worst fear is change, because what if we make a change and our situation gets worse? — Janet Skeslien Charles, Moonlight in Odessa The nub of Odessa's narrative is an indicative pointer to developments in Ukraine as a whole, and is historically well known. I had long wondered why Odessa, the cosmopolitan Black Sea metropolis of over one million people, was seemingly immune to the unrest unfolding in the rest of Ukraine. As a predominantly Russian-speaking city with an ostensibly ethnic Ukrainian majority population and motley nationalities ranging from Jews and Armenians to Crimean Tatars and Turks, Odessa was traditionally viewed by the Kremlin as unequivocally Russian. Kiev vehemently disputes the claim. I am not quite sure I concur with Janet Skeslien Charles. Yet, strategically, Odessa is regarded as vitally important for Kiev and particularly now with the loss of Crimea to Russia. It is the major Black Sea outlet of Ukraine. So when violence erupted in the city pitting pro-Moscow activists against pro-Kiev neo-Nazis, all hell let loose. Last Friday, pro-Moscow activists who had barricaded themselves in a trade union building and some 30 people lost their lives in a fire as a result. Kiev is not going to let Odessa be cut adrift without a furious fight and the blaze is an ill omen of developments to unfold. The angst in Kiev and its Western allies is that Odessa would follow eastern Ukrainian pro-Kremlin cities such as Sloviansk and Gorlivka, or worse, nearby Crimea. The pro-Russia supporters burned Ukrainian flags in a frenzy of anti-Kiev fury. Pro-Russians ask many of the right questions about the nature of the Ukrainian civil war. Ukrainian domestic politics has come full circle since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The fierce clashes last Friday between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian demonstrators build not so much as a grand finale to the Ukrainian crisis as a bleak realisation of the complex political situation in the country. Odessa, the third largest city in Ukraine, is key to the outcome of the Ukrainian crisis. Originally an ethnic Tatar settlement founded by Haci Bey Giray, the Khan of Crimea, in 1440, the city flourished as an Ottoman Turkish outpost until it was overrun by the troops of Catherine the Great, the redoubtable Queen of Russia, in 1794. Its historical architecture is Mediterranean, Art Nouveau, Renaissance and French and Italian Classicist. Tell tale differences mark pro-Moscow and anti-Kremlin activists. In Odessa, each side offers evidence that its ground game is winning. More controversially, a majority of the city's population are classified as ethnically Ukrainian (officially 62 per cent) even though a substantial minority of 30 per cent are rendered Russian, and Russian is the most widely spoken language in the Black Sea resort that has recently emerged as a strategic oil and gas pipeline hub. The current violence in Odessa is a tricky rebalancing act. The deaths came as pro-Russian protesters clashed with Ukrainian government supporters and the ugly fracas that followed highlighted how divided Ukraine has become. Internationally, in the West to be specific, the anti-Russians have sympathy, but little practical support. Everything about Ukraine is superlative at the moment. The violence in Odessa has been the most serious in Ukraine since February when more than 80 people were killed during protests in Kiev against ousted President Viktor Yanukovych. The chorus of those who chanted pro-Russian slogans has reached a crescendo. Pro-Moscow insurgents shot down two Ukrainian helicopters last Friday and the country is fast sliding into a state of chaos. Moscow has other cards to play in Ukraine apart from Odessa. Pro-Western Ukrainians in Odessa recognise the political significance of the city and are unlikely to brush off the threats of a pro-Kremlin insurrection. Dozens of people were killed in a fire in an official building in Odessa and the pro-Russia residents of the city have vowed revenge. They see the inferno as an Odessa Katyn, in reference to the tragedy in the Belorussian village where fascists burnt all its residents alive. Strip away the competing claims and it becomes clear that in spite of those burnt alive, the pro-Russians have politically outfoxed the government in Kiev. The Kremlin indicated that Kiev's military move against the insurgents in eastern Ukraine “destroyed” the two-week-old Geneva agreement on cooling Ukraine's crisis. Yet, as the Odessa debacle demonstrates, the political crisis in the country is fast spreading to Ukraine's Black Sea coast. The Ukrainian government is pondering how to respond to the crisis without palpable Western support. Pro-Kremlin Ukrainians are banking on Russian backing. Putin had warned Ukraine not to move against the insurgents and said it should withdraw its military from the volatile eastern and southern regions. The Kremlin had sent envoy Vladimir Lukin to Ukraine's southeast to negotiate the release of seven foreign military observers who are among those being held hostage by pro-Russia militia in Slovyansk. Ukraine, a nation of 46 million, is in turmoil and matters have come to a head in Odessa. In the pro-Russian eastern parts of the country anti-Kremlin forces are hounded and badgered. Interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk flew to Odessa to initiate a “full, comprehensive and independent investigation” into the mass burning of 42 pro-Russian activists in the city's Trade Unions House. Yatsenyuk accused Ukrainian security services and law enforcement forces of incompetence. The loyalty of police officers to Kiev is at stake. The police chief in Odessa is under investigation. He has been removed from his post. The Odessa incident demonstrates graphically how the authorities in Kiev are shaken and confused. They do not have a clue as to how to handle the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the Russian-speaking parts of the country. The cross-border heritage between Russia and Ukraine has become a conundrum that is complicated by the fact that the West has only patchy influence on the politics in Ukraine. If the West seems a bit confused over Ukraine it is not without reason. Odessa raises puzzling questions to Western powers about Ukraine's mixed national allegiance. Whatever the outcome of the Odessa calamity, these questions need to be urgently addressed.
