No one seems to know who fired two missiles on the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms in South Lebanon a few days ago. Israel, not in a mood to escalate things, blamed no one in particular. And Hizbullah, which many believe may be behind the attack, is not saying much. A pattern of guilty silence seems to develop as the Syrian war spills over the western and southern borders, with assailants, instead of bragging about their achievements, taking refuge in plausible deniability. Or, as some Israeli sources suggested, the shells may have been stray projectiles fired in the course of exchanges between the Syrian army and the rebels it is fighting in the south. There is even confusion over whether the missiles were fired from Lebanon or Syria. If it is true that the target of the shelling is an Israeli espionage station known as the Fawwar Centre, which is nestled in the hills of Mount Hermon, then it is more likely that Syria was the origin of the projectiles. From Syria, the slopes of Mount Hermon are within easy range, whereas from Lebanon, the mountainous terrain makes it harder, if not impossible, to take proper aim. Mustafa Hamdan, president of the Arqub and Shebaa Inhabitants Association, says that the region's topography makes it likely that the projectiles emanated from the Syrian side of the border. On the Lebanese side of the border, the area adjacent to Shebaa Farms is patrolled by international peacekeepers from the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) as well as the Lebanese army. This reduces the chances that Hizbullah, which maintains no real presence in this section of the South, is the perpetrator of the attack. But Hizbullah has been deployed in force in Syria, and it has the motive. A few days ago, Israeli planes shot at Hizbullah's border strongholds close to the Syrian-Lebanese border. It is not clear whether the planes attacked a target on the Lebanese side of the border or the Syrian, but it is believed that the target were arms convoys destined to the Iranian-backed Shia militia. Israel has not confirmed the attack, which Hizbullah termed an assault on Lebanese sovereignty, suggesting that the target was on Lebanon's side of the borders. Ali Al-Amin, a researcher with close knowledge of Hizbullah, says that one cannot rule out that Hizbullah is behind the missile attack on Shebaa Farms. If it were true that Hizbullah is the source of the missiles, and that it used Syrian land to fire on an area Israel occupies, this would be unprecedented. And it may be a sign that, if the conflict in Syria continues, the Golan Heights — which has been quiet for years — may see some action by the same group that had challenged Israel in South Lebanon for years. Hizbullah may just be letting Israel know that, just as it is prepared to get involved in its Syrian campaign, it can turn into a target of its Syria-based fighters. According to Al-Amin, Hizbullah may be also signalling its willingness to use Israel's tactics of striking without warning or admission. The stealth tactics that Israel has used for long in its confrontation with Syria may have at last been copied by one of its most determined foes in the region.
