‘With a quarter of the population living in poverty, it is clear that the current economic crisis has compounded the more long-standing patterns of social deprivation that contributed to the fall of Mubarak in 2011' — Egyptian Centre for Economic and Social Rights According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS), the poverty rate in Egypt increased in 2012/2013 to 26.3 per cent of the population, compared to 25.2 per cent in 2011/2012, reinforcing perceptions that life in the country is getting harder for a significant portion of the population. Poverty remains higher in rural than in urban areas, and it is growing in particular in Upper Egypt where 49 per cent of the population are now unable to cover basic needs compared to 44 per cent last year. Assiut registered the highest rate of poverty in the country last year at 60 per cent of the population, followed by Qena at 58 per cent and Sohag at 55 per cent. Poverty is now a global problem and not just in Egypt, since one billion people live on less than $1.25 a day worldwide, according to World Bank figures. The problem of poverty in Egypt has been compounded by a scarcity of basic commodities and a lack of security, and these factors have led to an increase in violence in poorer areas, commentators believe. Scenes of people fighting while waiting in line for subsidised bread have become quite usual, and such fights can even lead to deaths when they are for the butane gas cylinders that often experience shortages especially in the winter season. Being poor did not justify violent acts in the streets, said Hanaa Kheireddin, a professor of economics at Cairo University, who refused to describe “rare incidents of violence as a phenomenon in society”. “Poor families might feel they are in difficulties, but they are not criminals who take things by force,” Kheireddin said, attributing the rising criminality in the country to the lack of security measures in the streets and not to worsening poverty. However, even if poverty does not cause crime, it has led 13.7 million Egyptians, or 17 per cent of the population, to suffer from food insecurity, according to a report issued by the UN World Food Programme (WFD). The report attributed people's inability to buy adequate and nutritious food to rising poverty rates. The report also showed that the poorest families spend more than half their average household incomes on food and often buy less expensive and less nutritious food. The soaring prices of basic commodities have also led to more families falling into poverty. The prices of many foodstuffs, utilities, forms of transportation, and items of clothing have almost doubled over the past two years. Subsidised services such as electricity, gas, housing bills and public transportation have all increased. The price of a subsidised cylinder of butane gas has risen from LE2.57 to LE8, for example. Egypt's overall annual inflation rate recorded its highest level since January 2010 to reach 14.2 per cent in November. The measure, called the consumer price index (CPI), measures the change in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by representative households from urban areas including Cairo, Alexandria, urban Lower Egypt, the Canal cities and frontier governorates. In an attempt to calm possible social unrest, throughout the year the government has been trying to improve the lives of those on limited incomes. A LE1,200 minimum wage has been set for public-sector employees starting in January 2014, for example. However, neither workers nor experts are satisfied with this figure, saying that it will not enable workers to live decent lives. Abu Bakr Al-Guindi, the head of CAPMAS, said that a recent study conducted by the agency had revealed that a family of five needed LE1,620 a month at a minimum to cover essential needs. The Strategic Economic Trends Report, recently issued by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, also says that the LE1,200 figure is not enough to provide workers with a decent standard of living. Refaat Al-Said, head of the economic committee of the socialist Al-Tagammu Party, said that the government was prioritising the political over the social aspects of the problem. “Those on limited incomes do not care about politics, as politics will not feed their children. Ignoring their needs is dangerous, since poorer categories of the population could be employed to carry out illegal acts by unscrupulous elements,” he said. Al-Said criticised the government's reluctance to legislate to establish a similar minimum wage for private-sector workers. “This has left workers' representatives to negotiate with business owners who have threatened to close their companies if they are obliged to pay a minimum wage,” he said. The Al-Ahram report says that the government led by ousted former president Mohamed Morsi did nothing to help the poor and continued to implement policies associated with the ousted former Mubarak regime. According to the report, poorer categories of the population have not felt any improvement in their living conditions under the interim government led by Prime Minister Hazem Al-Beblawi either, even though this has increased the funds allocated for energy subsidies to LE128.5 billion in 2013/2014, compared to LE40 billion in 2006/2007. The bulk of the subsidised energy does not go to the poorer categories, but is used to support cement, steel, ceramics, oil and gas, fertilisers and aluminium companies that not only sell their products at international prices but also monopolise their various sectors. The current economic ordeals of low growth rates, a high fiscal deficit and increasing gross public debt, both local and foreign, will make it hard to deliver the needed job opportunities if unemployment in the country is to fall. The unemployment rate jumped to 13.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2013. More than three-quarters of the unemployed are between 15 and 29 years of age. The rate has been rising as many companies have halted their activities or laid off workers, adding to the number of unemployed new graduates Mahmoud Abdel-Karim, a barber in Nasr City in Cairo, said that his shop's revenues had declined by a third compared to two years ago. “I think people even delay having a haircut in order to save money,” he said. “I had to fire two workers to decrease my expenses and to cover my family's needs. But I promised to take them back on as soon as the business improved,” he added. In order to reduce the poverty rates, the government should find urgent solutions for the problems of the poor before launching into more complicated reforms, Al-Said said. Experts say that improving educational attainment is a prerequisite for fighting poverty. The CAPMAS study shows that there is a relationship between an individual's educational level and poverty, since poverty rates are 38 per cent among the illiterate compared to 12 per cent among the more educated. Moreover, the larger the family, the more likely it is to be poor, the CAPMAS study found. The poverty rate is seven per cent among families of four members, while it reaches 67 per cent in families of ten members or more, according to CAPMAS.
