Within weeks US President Barack Obama will make his first visit to Israel since taking office. The trip coincides with immense changes in the political scene in North Africa and the Levant. Israel is the first stop on Obama's first foreign tour of his second term, and he will use it to reaffirm the deep strategic relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv. Senior US diplomats say the visit will afford an opportunity for Obama to directly address Israeli public opinion on major issues: the Iranian nuclear threat, Syria, the future of the peace process and Israeli security post the Arab Spring. There is widespread speculation in Israel that Obama will try to push the new government to reach agreement with the Palestinian Authority. Meanwhile, Israelis want guarantees from Obama that he will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear bomb. Early this week US officials rushed to reassure Israel on such concerns in the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) annual conference in Washington. “All options, including military option, are on the table,” said US Vice President Joseph Biden. Four years ago Obama paid a landmark visit to Egypt and made a keynote speech to the Muslim world at Cairo University. He encouraged the Mubarak regime to open the political sphere and stop intimidating opposition. With the arrival of the first elected president to power in Egypt the US administration has faced real challenges as President Mohamed Morsi's grip on power is increasingly questioned and the spectre of chaos and economic meltdown stalks Egypt. US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Cairo for almost 30 hours this week, meeting government officials, business leaders, representatives of opposition parties and civil organisations, the defence minister and the head of General Intelligence. Kerry clearly intended to widen the scope of contacts within Egyptian society in the hope of getting fractious political parties to reach agreement on the painful economic reforms necessary to secure an IMF loan and ease political tensions. “We do believe that in this moment of serious economic challenge it's important for the Egyptian people to come together around the economic choices and to find some common ground,” Kerry said after meeting Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr. Kerry attempted to reassure the opposition that Washington was not seeking to favour any one party above another, an attempt to undermine the growing conviction among observers that Washington is throwing itself behind the Muslim Brotherhood. In a statement issued after his two-hour meeting with Morsi, Kerry announced that the United States would provide $250 million in assistance to Egypt. In the private meeting, say sources, Kerry asked the president to guarantee the fairness of parliamentary elections due in April. Morsi, for his part, assured Kerry that Cairo will move ahead with negotiations with the IMF over economic reforms. The National Salvation Front (NSF) decided to boycott the parliamentary elections because of what the opposition says is clear evidence that the MB and its political arm the Freedom and Justice Party are seeking to rig the vote and manipulate the executive to entrench its partisan agenda. The secular opposition fears the next elections will pave the way for a Muslim Brotherhood dictatorship since the group has already appointed its members to a host of senior positions. The president has repeatedly refused calls to form a new “technocrat government” to supervise the coming elections. According to sources close to the visit, Kerry encouraged Morsi to meet the demands of the opposition to build political consensus over economic reform and to send a message to US circles that Egypt is moving to end its transitional phase. Obama's dilemma is how to develop a practical partnership with a president from the most influential Islamist group in the region without putting US interests at risk. “Confident that Morsi will abide by the terms of the treaty with Israel and maintain the strong US-Egypt military relationship the Obama administration has remained relatively subdued in its condemnation of anti-democratic developments,” Tarek Radwan of the Atlantic Council wrote last week. Both Mohamed Al-Baradei and Hamdeen Sabahi declined an invitation to meet with Kerry. Former presidential candidate Amr Moussa did not. The political stand-off in Egypt has effectively prevented the US from engaging with Cairo on major regional issues, including the Syrian and Iranian nuclear crises, though Morsi's role in the most recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas built a degree of trust on which both sides would like to capitalise.
