THE Shura Council vote for 88 (one-third) of its seats, which was swept by candidates from the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), will shape the roadmap for the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential polls, scheduled for this October and 2011 respectively, say political observers. The Shura Council, the Upper House of the Egyptian Parliament, is made up of 264 members, of whom 176 are directly elected and the other 88 are appointed by the President. Membership is on a rotating basis, with one-third of the Council renewed every three years. The NDP won 80 out of the 88 seats in the mid-term elections early of this month, while the other seats were wrested by four independent candidates and four members of the opposition parties, the official results showed last Wednesday. Safwat el-Sherif, the Chairman of the Council and also the NDP Secretary- General, said last week that the party's overwhelming victory was expected and did not come as a surprise. He added the NDP candidates won most of the votes because they were strong and popular in their respective constituencies. The poll results require the opposition parties to prepare themselves well for the hotly contested parliamentary polls in October, the observers stress. “The interest in the Shura Council elections this time is because it is part of reformulating the political system in Egypt,” said Diaa Rashwan, a political analyst. “These elections are a prelude to what will happen in the next polls, he added A statement by a coalition of rights groups says that the refusal of the Higher Electoral Commission to allow human rights groups to monitor the Shura Council polls indicates the committee is not independent and is subject to the State security apparatus that intervened to ensure the election outcome would serve the NDP interests. The Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights, a non-governmental group, says that only 5 per cent of voters turned out for the election, which, it alleged, was marred by violence, vote buying and group voting for NDP candidates. The organisation also says that all of the monitors of the opposition candidates were barred from reaching the ballot boxes and claims that candidates were assaulted in many Delta governorates. These allegations are being investigated. However, a member of the commission denies this, arguing that sufficient time was given to all rights groups to receive permits to monitor the vote. “The Higher Electoral Commission gave permits to 52 rights groups to monitor the polls. Those who didn't get permits didn't apply in time between May 3 and 25,” Ahmed Shawqi added. “The final poll results, with the banned Muslim Brotherhood failing to win a single seat, show how much control the NDP will enjoy during the coming legislative and presidential elections,” said Diaa Rashwan, the political analyst. "The results show how much space the NDP will allow the Brotherhood and opposition parties in the parliamentary election later this year and the presidential race next year. They are a clear indication that the Government has decided to exclude the group from the next People's Assembly polls," Rashwan argued. Emad Gad, another analyst with Al- Ahram Centre for Strategic Studies, agrees. “The NDP, which now controls the Council, will not allow any independent candidates to run for the 2011 presidential elections,” said Gad. Since failing in the Shura polls, the Brotherhood, whose members ran as independents, has launched a signature collection across the country, where its members have a strong presence, in order to back a possible bid by ex- UN atomic watchdog head Mohamed ElBaradei to run for President next year. ElBaradei has said he might run, but constitutional rules make it almost impossible for an independent to get on the ballot. Under constitutional amendments that were approved three years ago, any independent presidential candidate has to be endorsed by 250 members of local councils and both houses of parliament. But the Government insists the system is free and fair. Analysts say a petition may not lead to changing the Constitution before the 2011 race, but could attract international scrutiny of Egypt's political system, which the Government would not welcome.
