BAGHDAD - Iraq is heading for a dangerous and uncertain future after its prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, lost its general election by the narrowest of margins but refused to step down without a fight. More worryingly, his supporters have openly threatened there would be a return to sectarian violence if Allawi were declared the winner. One close aide, Ali al-Adeeb, said in interviews that the threat of violence was "legitimate" if Iraqiya won. A group of Maliki supporters staged a demonstration in central Baghdad before the result was announced last night, shouting: "No, no to fraud" and "Where have our voices gone?" Ominously, ten chiefs from the southern provinces where Mr Maliki's Shia-dominated State of Law has its power base issued a statement earlier in the week saying there would be a "major escalation" if there were no recount. Election officials have refused. Election observers and diplomats say there were irregularities but they were not major. "It is the UN's considered opinion that these elections have been credible and we congratulate the people of Iraq for this success," Ad Melkert, United Nations representative in Iraq, said. He called on all parties to accept the result. Maliki was adjudged favourite going into the election, but as the votes were counted it was clear that he was neck-and-neck with Allawi. Neither was ever expected win the 163 seats needed for a majority, but western officials hoped a clear lead would give the winner a mandate to form a strong coalition. The White House, which wants to speed the withdrawal of American troops from this August, was watching closely. Under election rules, Allawi has 30 days to form a government, but to do so he will have to make unpalatable choices. Both main groups have already held out feelers to the third-placed Iraqi National Alliance, which is also predominantly Shia. Of its two principal factions, one is strongly backed by Iran and the other is headed by the radical anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and fought street battles with government and US forces until two years ago. They would be uneasy partners for Mr Allawi, a London-trained neurosurgeon who has joint British-Iraqi citizenship and a close relationship with both America and Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia. A pan-Shia alliance led by Mr Maliki would be more workable, but Sunni politicians in Mr Allawi's block would find it hard to accept being excluded from power despite having won the largest number of seats. Allawi, though himself a Shi'ite, was the overwhelming choice of the Sunni community, and Sunni militant groups linked to al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath party would use such an outcome to further their campaign of violence.
