As the conflict in Sudan grinds on, a new report offers a detailed look at a potentially significant shift in the war's dynamics: the Sudanese army's recent gains in early 2025. The report, released by African Narratives for Strategic Studies, examines how these advances are reshaping the battlefield and what they could mean for the future of the crisis. African Narratives for Strategic Studies is a Pan-African nonprofit policy research organisation committed to reshaping the global understanding of Africa while addressing the continent's most pressing challenges. With a core focus on democracy, security, energy, economic development and human rights, they amplify African voices and perspectives to foster informed discourse, inspire innovative solutions, and promote sustainable progress. The report, "Military Situation Assessment in Sudan 2025: Analysis of the Battles in the Period from January to February 2025 and Their Impact on the Future of the Crisis in Sudan," authored by Political Science Researcher Ahmed Gamal El Sayyad, acknowledges the devastating impact of the conflict. Millions have been displaced, and the humanitarian situation is dire. However, it zeroes in on the army's successes in reclaiming key territory and assets. Since the beginning of 2025, the Sudanese army has managed to regain control of several strategically important locations: * Wad Madani: The recapture of Wad Madani, the capital of Al-Jazeera State, was a major victory. This city holds significant economic and population importance. * Khartoum Bahri: The army made key advances in Khartoum Bahri, ultimately pushing back the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia. * Umm Rawaba: The army successfully retook Umm Rawaba in North Kordofan State, a strategically important city. * Jelei Refinery: Securing the Jelei refinery, located north of Khartoum, was a crucial accomplishment for the army. This facility is Sudan's largest oil refinery. The report details the specific battles and operations that led to these gains, highlighting the army's efforts to dislodge the RSF militia from key positions. For instance, the army launched artillery attacks on RSF positions in Khartoum Bahri and engaged in fierce clashes in the Shambat suburb. The report quotes Assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Army, Yasser Al-Atta, saying that "Khartoum Bahri has become clean and free of rebellion, from the Jelei refinery in the north to the Mak Nimr Bridge in the south." This statement underscores the army's confidence in its control of the city. The analysis emphasizes the strategic value of these gains. Control of Khartoum Bahri secures the River Nile State and reduces the threat to Omdurman. The army's seizure of the Mak Nimr Bridge facilitates access to the Republican Palace. Recapturing Wad Madani strengthens the army's position in the Al-Jazeera region. Of course, the report acknowledges that the conflict is far from over. The humanitarian situation remains dire, and the RSF continues to pose a significant threat. However, the army's recent successes raise important questions about the future trajectory of the war. As the report notes, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, the head of the Sovereignty Council and commander of the Sudanese army, has announced plans to form a transitional government with the goal of defeating the RSF. This suggests that the army is determined to press its advantage and pursue a military victory. The African Narratives report provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the Sudanese conflict. By focusing on the army's recent gains, it sheds light on a potentially crucial turning point in the war and raises questions about the path forward. Whether these gains will ultimately lead to a lasting peace remains to be seen, but they undoubtedly represent a significant shift in the military landscape. The international community must now consider the implications of these changes as it seeks to address the ongoing crisis in Sudan.
