CAIRO: Economic reform during the reign of President Hosni Mubarak has not reached the majority of Egyptians and in fact has left them in a greater state of disenfranchisement, according to a report by the British Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House. In an article for the May edition of the Chatham House magazine, The World Today, Associate Fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program Maha Azzam writes that the economic situation during Mubarak's tenure has “produced mixed results.” “Reform led to growth of over 7 percent during the global boom, but, with more than 40 percent living at or below the poverty line, unemployment at near 10 percent, inflation running at a similar level, the lot of the lower middle class and the poor has steadily declined,” the article states. Instead, “most of the wealth generated is concentrated in a new regime-connected mega rich elite,” it continues. The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has always emphasized economic reform over political change, but with Mubarak turning 82 next week, Azzam states that Egypt is on the cusp of political transition, with the president's son Gamal firmly entrenched in the machinations of the party. “While Mubarak's health remains an area of speculation after his operation in a German hospital, and it is unknown whether Gamal will replace him before polling, the fact remains that Gamal is firmly established within the political coteries of power and has enormous control in the new business environment,” she says. “Gamal Mubarak is popular among a younger NDP elite which wants to see a break from the old guard. He is credited with recruiting a new generation with a more reformist vision; however, this seems to apply more to the economy than political institutions,” she continues. NDP MP Mohamed Khalil Kwaiteh told Daily News Egypt that these economic policies helped Egypt dodge the worst of the recent world economic crisis and that the government had been trying to transfer this growth to the wider population. “The economic reform policies introduced to Egypt have led to annual growth of 7 percent and the world economic crisis did not affect us that much and that is thanks to the policies put in place by Egypt's Central Bank,” he said, “The government is trying very hard for this growth to reach the population, and increasing the number of social services offered in the areas of health, education and pension funds.” The article then poses the question of whether former IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei will be the harbinger of political change that at least some Egyptians seem to be seeking. “It is ElBaradei's long absence from the Egyptian political scene, his distance from the regime and the numerous corruption scandals with which it is tainted that makes him an appealing candidate,” the article states. ElBaradei has formed the National Coalition for Change, and is lobbying for constitutional amendments that would provide a fairer environment for free elections. “ElBaradei's most important contribution for now is that he has shown that there can be other contenders for the presidency from outside the ruling oligarchy,” Azzam writes, “If he is able to bring together and sustain an opposition coalition, he will have taken a major step in challenging the political order.” Kwaiteh said, “The party (NDP) believes in the transfer of power through fair elections and there is no doubt that change is coming. [However] the presidential election is governed by the constitution and ElBaradei has a right to express his opinion but he shouldn't enforce it on the Egyptian people.” The article — which also mentioned the Muslim Brotherhood as a potential risk if it continued to make political gains — states that upcoming events in Egypt will be a precursor for the political environment in other countries in the Middle East. “Political change in Egypt, whether towards greater democratization or instability, will have important repercussions regionally and could help set in motion new dynamics for regime change elsewhere in the Middle East,” Azzam concludes.
