Egypt's Abdalla highlights domestic production, inflation control at Arab banks meeting    Egypt's PM says Gaza war dominating political scene, vows to continue economic reform    Cairo governor briefs PM on Khan el-Khalili, Rameses Square development    El Gouna Film Festival's 8th edition to coincide with UN's 80th anniversary    Cairo University, Roche Diagnostics inaugurate automated lab at Qasr El-Ainy    Egypt expands medical, humanitarian support for Gaza patients    Finance Ministry presents three new investor facilitation packages to PM to boost investment climate    Egypt condemns Israeli offensive in Gaza City, warns of grave regional consequences    Egypt investigates disappearance of ancient bracelet from Egyptian Museum in Tahrir    Egypt launches international architecture academy with UNESCO, European partners    African trade ministers meet in Cairo to push forward with AfCFTA    Egypt's President, Pakistan's PM condemn Israeli attack on Qatar    Egypt signs MoUs with 3 European universities to advance architecture, urban studies    Madrid trade talks focus on TikTok as US and China seek agreement    Egypt's Sisi, Qatar's Emir condemn Israeli strikes, call for Gaza ceasefire    Egypt condemns terrorist attack in northwest Pakistan    Egyptian pound ends week lower against US dollar – CBE    Egypt hosts G20 meeting for 1st time outside member states    Egypt to tighten waste rules, cut rice straw fees to curb pollution    Egypt seeks Indian expertise to boost pharmaceutical industry    Egypt prepares unified stance ahead of COP30 in Brazil    Egypt harvests 315,000 cubic metres of rainwater in Sinai as part of flash flood protection measures    Al-Sisi says any party thinking Egypt will neglect water rights is 'completely mistaken'    Egyptian, Ugandan Presidents open business forum to boost trade    Egypt's Sisi, Uganda's Museveni discuss boosting ties    Egypt's Sisi warns against unilateral Nile measures, reaffirms Egypt's water security stance    Greco-Roman rock-cut tombs unearthed in Egypt's Aswan    Egypt reveals heritage e-training portal    Sisi launches new support initiative for families of war, terrorism victims    Egypt expands e-ticketing to 110 heritage sites, adds self-service kiosks at Saqqara    Palm Hills Squash Open debuts with 48 international stars, $250,000 prize pool    On Sport to broadcast Pan Arab Golf Championship for Juniors and Ladies in Egypt    Golf Festival in Cairo to mark Arab Golf Federation's 50th anniversary    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    A minute of silence for Egyptian sports    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







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From Baghdad to New Orleans, climate at chaos' edge
Published in Daily News Egypt on 02 - 03 - 2007

The scientific debate about whether there is a global warming problem is pretty much over. A leading international group of climate scientists reported last month that the evidence of global warming is "unequivocal and that the likelihood it is caused by humans is more than 90 percent. Skeptical researchers will continue to question the data, but this isn't a "call both sides for comment issue anymore. For mainstream science, it's settled. The question now is what to do about global warming. This is a political problem more than a scientific one. The solutions (if we can agree on any) will require political will and imagination - and also pain. That was my only reservation about the Oscar night celebration of Al Gore's leadership on this issue. The gowns and black ties and the celebrity back-slapping made it look like dealing with global warming will be fun, a walk down the red carpet. But it's more likely to be about catastrophe, and how to share the pain. These issues come into focus in a startling new report by futurist Peter Schwartz. He turns the usual discussions upside down: Rather than starting with detailed estimates of climate change (how much temperatures will increase; how much sea levels will rise; what new diseases will be spawned) he looks instead at systems that already are vulnerable to such stresses. What Schwartz discovers with his stress-testing makes climate change even scarier: The world already is precarious; the networks that maintain political and social order already are fragile, especially in urban areas; the dividing line between civilized life and anarchy is frighteningly easy to breach, as the daily news from Iraq reminds us. We look at the behaviors of butterflies or migratory birds as early harbingers of climate change. But what about early impacts on human beings? "The steady escalation of climate pressure will stretch the resiliency of natural and human systems, writes Schwartz. "In short, climate change pushes systems everywhere toward their tipping point. Schwartz's report, "Impacts of Climate Change, was prepared by his consulting group, Global Business Network, for a US government intelligence agency he doesn't identify. The text of the report is available at the online discussion forum, PostGlobal. (www.washingtonpost.com/postglobal) Here's a brief trek through the ravaged landscape Schwartz describes. A first set of disasters waiting to happen involves stressed ecosystems. Human actions - deforestation, overfarming, rapid urbanization - have created special vulnerability to catastrophic natural events that are likely as the global climate changes. In an interview, Schwartz cited the example of Haiti, which because of deforestation and loss of topsoil is "an ecosystem at the edge. A prolonged drought or a devastating hurricane could tip Haiti over that threshold - and produce a refugee crisis of tens of thousands of boat people fleeing a devastated island. Or take the problem of rising sea levels: Climate scientists are uncertain how fast the icecaps will melt and the seas will rise. But in Bangladesh, where millions of people already live at or near sea level, even a small rise could produce a catastrophe. If a monsoon strikes, 60 million to 100 million people could be forced to flee inundated areas, Schwartz warns, producing "the single greatest humanitarian crisis we have ever seen. Lack of water may be as big a problem as flooding. Schwartz notes that more than 700 million people now live in arid or semi-arid areas. Climate change could tip this balance, too, producing severe water shortages and even "water wars. Tens of millions of people may become water migrants. The world's feeble political systems can't cope with existing migration patterns, let alone this human tide. And finally, there is the problem of maintaining social order in a stressed world. You don't have to go to Baghdad to see how quickly the social fabric can shred; just look at New Orleans after hurricane Katrina. The stresses come in part from rapid urbanization. Schwartz notes that in 1900, one in 20 people lived in cities; today it's about half, and the percentage is rising fast. Without strong and supple governments, this could become a world of vigilantes and militias, desperate to control scarce resources. The big problems in life aren't the ones that hit you by surprise, but the ones you can see coming. That's surely the case with climate change: We can measure it, we can imagine its catastrophic effects. But can we do anything to stop it? If we let ourselves visualize how bad it could get, as Schwartz does in this report, will we make changes that might reduce the disaster? That's the real stress test: It's coming at us. What are we doing about it?
Syndicated columnistDavid Ignatius is published regularly by THE DAILY STAR.

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