CAIRO: When watching taxi drivers text in slow-moving traffic, groups of teenage girls each chatting on their respective mobiles, and the lengthy lines at shops selling the latest blackberry and accessories, one might be tempted to think that every Egyptian has a mobile phone. While this would be an exaggeration, by the year 2010 this perception might not be too far off the mark. According to predictions by Research and Markets, by 2010 there will be an estimated 73 mobile phone subscriptions per 100 people, with the total number of subscribers reaching 57.3 million. This signifies more than a 36 percent increase, up from the current wireless penetration level of 56 percent and 42 million subscribers. These projected figures are a continuation of the upward trend of mobile usage of recent years, during which the popularity of mobile phones surpassed fixed-line subscriptions in 2005, reaching 18 million users at the end of 2006 and 30 million at the end of 2007. Hany Mahmoud, vice president of Vodafone Egypt, attributed this sustained growth to a few factors. Lower service prices play a large role, Mahmoud said, as more people are able to afford mobile phones and subscriptions. Since the prices dropped in 2004 from LE 2 per minute to 50 piastres per minute, the number of Vodafone subscribers quadrupled. With 15 million current subscribers, Vodafone is the second largest mobile telecommunication company in Egypt, and it plans to expand beyond its current role to become a "total telecommunication company. By offering numerous services through one provider, expanding its 3G coverage so less urban areas will have mobile access to wireless internet, and continuing to improve its customer care, Mahmoud said Vodafone hopes to have 20 million customers by the year 2010. Research and Markets actually predicts a more generous estimate for Vodafone, projecting that Vodafone will maintain its current hold on the market, and by 2010 will account for 40 to 45 percent of subscribers, or 22.9 to 25.7 million customers. Mobinil is predicted to fair equally well, but was unavailable for comment. Recent newcomer, Etisalat is predicted to hold a market share of 15.8 percent in 2010, up from its current share of 9.5 percent. The Egyptian branch of the United Arab Emirates-based mobile operator, Etisalat entered the market in May of 2007, eyeing 10 million subscribers during its first three years. Since then the company has secured four million subscribers, and now predicts that it will reach 12 million by 2010. While winning 12 million subscribers in as little as three years might be an ambitious goal, Etisalat said it will continue to expand its coverage to reach more consumers and it is confident that its goal is attainable. "We are a reliable network that is user-friendly and transparent, and this is what is attracting customers to Etisalat, said a company statement. With current market saturation levels at only 56 percent, in the next few years Etisalat, Mobinil, and Vodafone will be able to tap the large pool of Egyptians who have yet to subscribe to a mobile operator. As the percent of Egyptians with mobiles continues to rise, however, this resource of new users will eventually run out. Mahmoud said that Egypt's large youth population - a demographic typically more willing to make technological purchase - and the relative low price of subscriptions are currently helping to contribute to the market's rapid growth, but eventually the mobile companies will inevitably reach an equilibrium. "We're still a very growing market compared to a more mature market like Europe. There is a very optimistic hope that the mobile industry will continue to grow. But in three to five years it will reach stability, Mahmoud said. "It will be the end game.
