CAIRO: If, as is expected, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) announces today the indictment of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Beshir for war crimes in Darfur, it will be the first time in history an incumbent ruler would be taken to task for human rights violations committed during his reign. Moreno-Ocampo is expected to list the names of top Sudanese officials with Al-Beshir at their head for war crimes in the Western area of Darfur, which has witnessed the death of 300,000 and the displacement of 2.5 million since 2003 according to UN figures. The Sudanese government claims that the deaths have totaled not more than 10,000.The ICC Chief Prosecutor is then expected to seek an arrest warrant for Al-Beshir to bring him to trial at The Hague, Netherlands. "It will certainly now be possible to bring other presidents to the court, Diaa Rashwan from Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies told Daily News Egypt, "lawmakers are split on the legitimacy of this, but it is a precedent. And so we must now expect anything. Sudan had requested an extraordinary meeting of the Arab League to discuss the implications of the indictment and form a unified Arab stance against it. The judgment from the centralized power bases in Sudan is that if Al-Beshir is indicted, this will lead to more bloodshed and violence in Darfur, and will derail the current peace process for good measure. "If [the indictment] is announced then this will mean two dangerous developments, Sudan expert from Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Hani Raslan told Daily News Egypt, "this will end completely any chance of a peace settlement in Darfur, as it will send a message to the rebel groups to not settle with the Beshir government and wait for it to fall. "Secondly, this will cause a great blow to the legitimacy of the current regime and will unleash a chain of internal events which in this current sensitive internal climate regarding the south of Sudan and the elections in 2009 could lead to the division of Sudan. Or it will decimate the regime without an existing replacement that could bring stability to the country, Raslan added. Thousands marched in Khartoum Sunday to protest the indictment, marching on UN headquarters and chanting slogans labeling the ICC as a lackey for the US, EU and Israel. Raslan said, "Those who gave Moreno-Ocampo information about Al-Beshir are using the court not to help Darfur but rather to achieve a Western agenda and proof of this is that the precedent for dealing with widespread human rights violations is not handled this way but always as part of a wider political solution involving transitional justice. Sudan is negotiating with its allies China and Russia on ways to counter the indictment. The UN Security Council has the mandate to suspend any ICC indictments for one year under Article 16 of the court's statute. The suspension can be extended after the year expires. Both China and Russia have veto power on the Security Council. Rashwan said, "The indictment has more to do with geopolitics and the political balance in the region. Yet it is now possible to bring any leader to the court, since Sudan is not even a signatory of the ICC. It will always depend on the politics, but now anything can happen. Moreno-Ocampo has implicated Sudan's "entire state apparatus in the war crimes taking place at Darfur, while rebel groups in the region welcomed the news of Al-Beshir's possible indictment, with some even stating they would offer their own leaders to the court in case of indictment. "There are human rights violations in many countries and areas and the Americans and Israelis are even sometimes involved in this, Raslan said, "there are massacres in Congo which have claimed the lives at least 1.5 million people, which is more casualties than Darfur and no one has said anything. So the situation in Sudan is related to its huge natural resources.
