CAIRO: A video by Al-Qaeda's ideologue, Egyptian Ayman Al-Zawahiri, calling for regime change in Egypt is not likely to have a major effect on the country's political climate says Nabil Abdel-Fatah, an analyst at Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. "It will have no effect, Abdel-Fatah told The Daily Star Egypt. The video of the number two in Al-Qaeda, entitled "The Advice of One Concerned was released on Wednesday and aside from the usual tirades against the "Crusaders and Jews Al-Zawihiri also called for regime change in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He said: "In the long term one must work seriously to change these corruptregimes and corruptors, adding that "one must win over popular sympathy for achange to Islamic Jihadism. Al-Zawihiri didn't rule out "the necessity of using force to provoke that change. Abdel-Fatah believes there are numerous motives behind Al-Zawihiri's video which belie many of Al-Qaeda's intentions. However, the first reason is to show that "Al-Zawihiri, the group's ideological leader, is still alive and has a political and military presence. Additionally, Al-Zawihiri wanted to show that "[Al-Qaeda] still has a role in Egyptian politics. Maybe it was also a signal to sleeper cells in Egypt. Finally, he adds, "this tape at this time is a possible critique of the ceasefire initiative of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad group. This ceasefire, which is supported by the majority of Jihad members who are incarcerated, constitutes a blow to Al-Qaeda in Egypt, because it is an indictment of Al-Qaeda policies. Al-Zawihiri also attacked the Saudi royal family, singling out Prince Bandar bin Sultan for the alleged acceptance of over one billion dollars in secret payments by British arms firm BAE over a period of two decades following a 1985 deal between Saudi Arabia and Britain. Al-Zawahiri described Said royals and officials as "the rapacious ones who want to possess the land, that which it holds and those who inhabit it. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are traditionally the two largest allies of the United States in the Arab world, and along with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates are known as the Middle East Quartet. The video "will not cause a change in Egypt, Abdel-Fatah said, "but it could lead to a series of attacks in the country attributed to Al-Qaeda. But there will be no political effect.
