Jobless rates among young people will get even worse globally as the spill-over of the euro crisis spreads from advanced to emerging economies, according to a United Nations paper issued today. “Ironically, only in developed economies are youth unemployment rates expected to fall in the coming years, but this follows the largest increase in youth unemployment among all regions since the start of the crisis," said Ekkehard Ernst, the lead author of the UN International Labor Organization (ILO)'s paper, entitled Global Employment Outlook: Bleak Labor Market Prospects for Youth. The paper forecasts the youth unemployment rate in developed economies dropping gradually, from 17.5 percent this year to 15.6 percent in 2017 – far higher than the rate of 12.5 percent registered in 2007, before the crisis struck. Much of this decline in the jobless rate is not due to improvements in the labor market, but rather to large numbers of young people dropping out of the labor force altogether due to discouragement, ILO noted in a news release, adding that these discouraged youth are not counted among the unemployed. According to ILO, the world is facing a worsening youth employment crisis: young people are three times more likely to be unemployed than adults, and over 75 million youth worldwide are looking for work. The labor agency has previously warned of a “scarred" generation of young workers facing a dangerous mix of high unemployment, increased inactivity and precarious work in developed countries, as well as persistently high working poverty in the developing world. The ILO paper notes that the global youth unemployment rate will reach 12.9 percent by 2017 – up 0.2 percentage points from forecasts for 2012. Also, the youth unemployment is projected to be highest in North Africa and the Middle East, with a 25 percent rate forecast over the next years. The labor agency notes that even in countries with early signs of a jobs recovery and where new vacancies are opening up, many unemployed youth still find it difficult to land a job. For example, a construction worker whose job was lost during the housing bust might not have the skills needed in sectors that are hiring. “This leads to discouragement and rising NEET rates (“neither in employment, education or training") among young people," said Ernst, who also heads ILO's Employment Trends Unit. “Schemes using employment guarantees and an emphasis on training could help get jobseekers off the street and into useful activities, providing a safeguard against further economic stress." According to the paper, such youth guarantees can come at very limited cost, less than half a percent of gross domestic product among European countries. “In times of constrained public finances, this may seem like a large additional burden, but it will be less than the additional costs that come from young unemployed people permanently losing touch with the labor market," the paper states. At its annual conference in June this year, ILO adopted a resolution calling for immediate, targeted and renewed action to tackle the youth employment crisis. The resolution provides a portfolio of tried and tested measures in five areas: macro-economic policies, employability, labor market policies, youth entrepreneurship and rights. It underscores the need for balance, coherence and complementarity across the policy measures.
