The French economy will see growth gradually increasing to 1.3 per cent by 2025, starting at 0.9 percent in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) last assessment. This comes after real GDP growth of 1.1 per cent in 2023, largely fueled by net exports, despite a slowdown in the overall recovery. Inflation, which peaked in early 2023, has been on a downward trend, although fluctuations continued due to the unwinding of energy support measures and delayed wage adjustments. Headline inflation is projected to reach 2.3 per cent in 2024, with expectations to return to target in early 2025. Public finances faced challenges, with a fiscal deficit of 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2023, exceeding budget plans because of lower-than-expected revenues. The revised 2024 budget aims for a deficit of 5.1 per cent of GDP, prioritising fiscal consolidation while allowing for new investments in green and digital transformations. The outlook remains cautious, influenced by risks related to political fragmentation and external geopolitical tensions. However, faster reform momentum could help mitigate some uncertainties. Attribution: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).
