As the countdown to the presidential election begins, Egypt's largest political group, the Muslim Brotherhood, remains undecided on endorsing a candidate, insisting that Egypt's first post-revolution president should be a man “of consensus.” According to Mahmoud Hussein, the group's secretary general, the Brothers prefer to wait until the nomination period nears as an end before they make a final decision on whom to back. “We believe that there are still a lot of patriotic and faithful figures of consensus who may feel encouraged to nominate themselves,” Hussein told Egypt Independent. Less than two months stand between the group and the conclusion of the nomination period. The Presidential Elections Commission, the judicial body in charge of administering and monitoring the upcoming poll, announced on Sunday that potential nominees can field their candidacy between 10 March and 8 April. The next president is expected to assume office by the end of June. To nominate oneself, a presidential hopeful has to secure the backing of at least 30 of the 678 elected members of Parliament or gather the signatures of at least 30,000 eligible voters from at least 15 of Egypt's 27 governorates. A leader of consensus? In recent days, the catchphrase “a president of consensus” has made headlines in the local press. The Muslim Brotherhood and its political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, emerged as the prime sponsors of the idea. By a candidate “of consensus,” the country's oldest Islamist organization means a presidential hopeful who political forces of “significant weight” can agree upon, explained Hussein. Only such a candidate can “have the strength to run the country” and “achieve political stability,” he added. This candidate should have no partisan affiliation, according to Hussein, who argued that “Having a candidate who belongs to a particular political trend might not be in Egypt's best interest and may cause divisions.” In light of the détente that has marked the military-Islamist relations since Hosni Mubarak's ouster, many skeptics interpreted the call for “a president of consensus” as an indicator that the Brothers and the generals seek to put forward a nominee that can serve the interest of the two camps. Last week, the local press quoted anonymous sources claiming that Nabil al-Araby, the Secretary General of the Arab League and former foreign minister, might be the one. However, such reports elicited the stir of many presidential hopefuls who alleged that the military seeks to strike a deal with the Brothers to impose a particular president on the nation. In response, the Brothers denied that they had approached Araby, while the 77-year-old diplomat announced that he had no intention to run for president. Nevertheless, the group's reluctance to announce its favorite candidate is seen as an indicator that none of the actual nominees meet the Brothers' expectations. “The Brothers are in crisis,” said Khalil al-Anani, a political scientist with Durham University who studies the group. “They cannot find the candidate who would achieve what they want.” “They want a candidate with no ideology. They want someone who is more of an impartial technocrat than a politician. This requirement does not apply to any of the existing nominees,” he added. The group has stated that it will back a presidential hopeful with no ties to the Mubarak regime, who does not emerge from the military and who holds no grudges against Islamists. Meanwhile, many observers add a fourth condition — that the nominee should be approved by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Hussein dismisses these claims that the military's approval is required as “baseless.” He contends that his group seeks to reach a consensus only with civilian political groups over the best presidential candidate. “[The group] wants a consensus among political forces, and that has nothing to do with the SCAF,” he said. So far, more than 10 people have expressed their interest in running. Nevertheless, probably no more than six stand as plausible candidates, including Amr Moussa, former secretary-general of the Arab League and one of Mubarak's former foreign ministers; Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister; Hamdeen Sabbahy, a Nasserist political leader; Mohamed Selim al-Awa, an Islamist lawyer; Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, a former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood; and Hazem Abu Ismail, a Salafi preacher. None seem capable of meeting the criteria set by the Brotherhood. Backing Shafiq or Moussa might undermine the credibility of the Muslim Brotherhood given their ties with Mubarak's regime. Sabbahi's vehemently critical views on the SCAF's performance during the transitional period might discourage the Brothers from backing him. The group has also affirmed many times that it would not back any overtly Islamist candidate, ruling out Awa, Abouel Fotouh and Abu Ismail. An anonymous source in the Muslim Brotherhood told the London-based pan-Arab Al-Hayat daily last week that the group is still looking for potential nominees of consensus but if it cannot find any, Moussa is the most likely candidate to win the organization's support. Although he served as a minister under Mubarak, Moussa is not as stigmatized by his affiliation to the old regime as Shafiq. Anani sees this as a plausible scenario, especially as Moussa may be a candidate that the Brothers can control. “Moussa will always be dependent on them. He is not Islamist and hence he has no large support base, so he will rely on the support he can get from the group's parliamentary bloc,” Anani said. In the meantime, the former diplomat can earn the approval of the generals, he added. Abandoning Islamists The group's categorical objection to Islamist candidates does not necessarily resonate with every single brother. “Until now, the group did not put forward a logical reason to convince us of the idea of ‘a candidate of consensus,'” said Ahmed Abu-Zekry, a 28-year-old brother from the Upper Egyptian city of Beni Suef. “Islamists are in the forefront everywhere. Why not in the presidency too?” Holding more than 40 percent of seats, the group's political party stands as the largest bloc in the People's Assembly, but it is not the only Islamist camp in Parliament. The ultra-orthodox Islamist Alliance, led by the Salafi Nour Party, has grabbed nearly 25 percent of seats. In the ongoing Shura Council elections, the two parties are close to achieving similar results. “A large segment of the youths within the Brotherhood are inclined to [vote for] Abouel Fotouh and believe he is a patriotic man,” said Abu-Zekry. In May, Abouel Fotouh, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood's highest decision-making structure, announced that he would run for president. With this announcement, the 61-year-old Islamist had violated the group's decision not to field a brother for the presidency. Ultimately, he was dismissed from the organization. His dismissal stood as the last episode in the tense relationship between the reformist Abouel Fotouh and the organization's hawkish leaders. In late 2009, Abouel Fotouh was excluded from the organization's Guidance Bureau in an allegedly fraudulent internal poll. His expulsion from the group all together in July had outraged many young brothers, who still hold him as an iconic political leader. Earlier, Muslim Brotherhood leaders explained that they would not vote for an Islamist nominee to avoid an Islamist monopoly of the political system. The position was seen as an attempt to assure liberals at home and Western governments still skeptical of Islamists. In March, Khairat al-Shater, the Muslim Brotherhood's deputy supreme guide, told a local paper that his group fears facing the same fate as Hamas or the Algerian Islamist movement, one shunned by the international community and the other crushed by the military after dominating elections, if it captures both Parliament and the presidency. But these arguments still fall short of convincing junior Islamists. “If the brothers fail to present a real alternative to Abouel Fotouh, people [within the group] will vote for him,” said Abu-Zekry. Nevertheless, Abu-Zekry's position does not necessarily mean that senior brothers will fail to dissuade the majority of their followers from voting for an Islamist candidate. According to Mohamed Habib, a former leader within the Muslim Brotherhood, the group's internal discipline based on “listening and obeying” would facilitate the leaders' mission of selling a non-Islamist candidate to their rank and file. Despite earlier unequivocal statements on the matter, the group's official discourse showed less rigidity on candidates with Islamist labels this week. “We do not want a candidate who belongs to a particular Islamist trend, but he has to have Islamist tendencies. This is important for the Egyptian mood,” Hussein told Egypt Independent on Sunday. A similar statement was made earlier by the Muslim Brotherhood's media spokesperson Mahmoud Ghozlan. “Are we playing with words?” wondered Habib. “How can the candidate not belong to the Islamist trend and in the meantime have Islamist tendencies?” Such statements attest to “a state of confusion” within the group's leadership, argued Habib, explaining that the leaders are trying to sound more in line with “the general Islamist mood” of Egyptian voters. “The people have chosen [the Brothers] because they are Islamists. How come the [Brothers] come and tell them that they do not want to back an Islamist presidential candidate?” said Habib.
