The revolution in Egypt is far from over. Currently, the country is in a state of transition, as the military and political leaders slowly push towards meeting the principal demand of the people: democracy. As many Egyptians have found, however, the process is extremely delicate, and can be painfully slow. Since former President Hosni Mubarak was ousted from power in February, numerous mass protests have taken place objecting to the slow pace of reforms. The military, which had popular backing during the toppling of Mubarak, is now being called into question over whether it truly intends to cede power to a democratic civilian government. There is no doubt that the case of Egypt is extraordinarily important. A successful transition in Egypt would mark a political renaissance in the Middle East and North Africa. However, reversing almost sixty years of authoritarian rule will be a very difficult and prolonged task. Nevertheless, Egyptians can take comfort in knowing that it can and has been done before. Egypt can look to Spain as a country that experienced over three decades of authoritarianism and then flourished into a liberal democracy. The transition that took place in Spain from 1975 to 1981 was extraordinarily difficult, yet the leaders of the country, pushed by the people's thirst for democracy, chose a steady and correct course in their transition, marked by popular consultation and measured decision-making. The example of Spain serves to show the road forward: the steps that need to be taken, and the perils that may lie ahead. In the 1930's, Spain experimented with republicanism before it was brutally ended by fascism, led by General Francisco Franco, at the end of the Spanish Civil War. During his 36 years of rule – until his death in 1975 – Franco ruled with an iron fist, crushing all political dissent, stifling liberal ideologies and subjugating Spain to decades of economic malaise. The current King of Spain, Juan Carlos I, took over the country following Franco's death and steered the country towards democracy. He was faced with the Sisyphean challenge of reforming the country's political system, while avoiding conflict with the country's most powerful institution at the time – the military. In order to avoid the extreme political turbulence that could hurl the country into another civil war, the King appointed Adolfo Suarez as Prime Minister. Suarez was deliberate and methodical in his actions: passing critical political reforms, allying himself with the progressive wing of the military, and slowly taking key steps towards democracy. The culmination of his efforts came with the 1978 Constitution, which created a liberal democracy characterized by a parliamentary system, a bicameral legislature, an independent judiciary, the guarantee of fundamental human and civil rights, and free elections. The King was appointed as head of state, yet his power was significantly diminished, becoming a symbolic apolitical figure representing the country's unity. In the span of three years, Spain went from being an authoritarian dictatorship to a promising liberal democracy. However, terrorism, political infighting, and a weak economy caused considerable problems for the country, compelling Suarez's resignation in 1981. During the confirmation hearing for the next Prime Minister, the military, fearing that country was slipping into chaos, staged a coup d'état. Fortunately, this attempt failed due to the monarchy's and the public's intense opposition to the coup. After this momentous event, which delegitimized the extreme right wing military officers, it became clear that Spain would continue largely unimpeded on its path of reform, modernization, and democratization. This history could serve as a valuable lesson for Egypt. Egypt is still nascent in its political transition to democracy. Although the country is mired in the events taking place inside Mubarak's trial, the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections will be incredibly important in setting the tone for the next years of transition. It is essential that the parliamentary elections, slated to begin in November, are fair and transparent. For too long, Egyptian people have been deceived and cheated through elections, with the Mubarak regime's modus operandi of holding sham elections where they were often guaranteed over 70% of the vote. Thus, elections must be supported on two fronts: first, international monitors must be present. Second, activists, non-governmental organizations, and the provisional government, headed by Hussein Tantawi of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and Prime Minister Essam Sharaf, must persuade the population to participate. This was a huge success of the Spanish transition, as 78% voted in the first general elections in 1977. A high voter turnout would lend legitimacy to the government, and the elected parliamentarians would at last be accountable to the Egyptian people – an element of Egyptian politics that has been absent for far too long. High voter participation and political activism must continue past the transitional period, as presidential elections and perhaps a future constitutional referendum are expected to take place a few months after the parliamentary elections. The main obstacle in the transition process will likely be the military's reluctance to give up the power they have accrued over six decades. The future President of Egypt will slowly need to adopt policies that crowd out the military establishment. This will be a monumentally difficult task, as the military is a political and economic powerhouse. They will not move aside easily and they will be reluctant to accept a secondary role. They have been the powerbrokers of Egypt since 1952, and it will take a political struggle for them to cede power. It will undoubtedly be a drawn out and delicate process that will require an incredible amount of political adroitness. The lessons drawn from Prime Minister Suarez's tactic of including progressive military officers in the process should be adopted. This would be a wise step for the future President of Egypt, because the military will need to remain an integral and cooperative partner in the transition. By including progressive minded former Mubarak era military officials, ministers and/or advisors as part of the new government, Egypt will make great strides toward averting a conflict with the military establishment, and in the process they will hopefully avoid a coup d'état. Many questions linger, such as: will the military accept the election results if the Muslim Brotherhood wins a majority of votes? The Muslim Brotherhood, which in the Spain comparison would be the equivalent of the Spanish Communist Party, was legalized earlier this year. For years, the Mubarak regime craftily used the Muslim Brotherhood as a bargaining chip with the West, claiming that it (extremist Muslims) was the only alternative to the Mubarak regime. However, this claim was greatly exaggerated, as the Muslim Brotherhood is a moderate and non-violent Islamic group. Thus, international actors must accept the results of a fair election, even if the Muslim Brotherhood wins a majority of parliamentary seats. This would also undoubtedly be a strong signal for the military to accept the people's demands. In Spain, the Communist Party was banned for decades. Legalized shortly before elections took place, many military officials were horrified that the “reds” would take over their country. Other Western nations were also troubled by the thought of communists governing in Spain. Their fears were inflated, however, as the Communist Party proved to be a productive player in the democratic process, and did not gain as many votes as expected. The Constitution of Spain should also serve as an example for Egypt's future leaders. It was a true democratic triumph, especially against the backdrop of the tense political atmosphere in Spain. In May of this year, Egyptian voters decided to amend the constitution through a referendum in which 41% of eligible voters participated. Yet many political figures in Egypt, such as presidential hopefuls Mohammed El Baradei and Amr Moussa, and even reformists within the Muslim Brotherhood, were opponents of the proposed reforms. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the next President should hold elections of a panel tasked with drafting a new constitution, which would then be put to a popular referendum. A robust liberal document would be an incredible achievement and a victory for Egypt's democratic experiment. Ideally, all parts of the Egyptian political spectrum would participate in the drafting of a new constitution. The 1978 Spanish Constitution is a valuable model for Arab leaders, and the Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha has even recently translated it into Arabic. The Egyptian transition is full of obstacles. Neither elections nor trials will instantly undo six decades of military rule. Undoubtedly, the future leaders of this North African country have a tremendous challenge before them. Spain went through this same process over three decades ago, yet it now stands as an example of a liberal democracy. Egyptian leaders would be wise to look back into Spanish history and take away the lessons of their democratic experiment. While the road ahead will be difficult and at times even treacherous, with careful guardianship it could nevertheless lead to a more prosperous and free future for the Egyptian people. Miguel de Corral is an independent policy analyst with a focus on the Middle East. He studies International Affairs at Northeastern University.
