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Ceasefire stymied
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 05 - 02 - 2009

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, supposed to be announced today, is on hold as Israel adds the prisoner swap issue to the fray, Amira Howeidy reports
Between Cairo and Abu Dhabi, a cache of issues is being placed on various negotiating tables, not just to address the post-war situation in Gaza but also to deliver messages to regional neighbours. A climate of vagueness and unconfirmed new initiatives is only adding to the air of uncertainty.
As Al-Ahram Weekly was going to press Wednesday, round the clock talks between Egypt's Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman and Hamas figures from Gaza and Damascus continued behind closed doors. The five-member Hamas delegation originally flew to Cairo to discuss the terms for a planned ceasefire agreement to be announced today, 5 February, but Israel's decision to inject a prisoner swap deal further complicated already difficult talks.
According to Hamas politburo member Mohamed Nazzal, in interview with the Weekly by telephone from Damascus Wednesday afternoon, "There are no signs of any progress in the talks, nor are we anywhere near announcing a ceasefire agreement." The problematic points that stand in the way, according Nazzal, are related to the timeframe of the proposed ceasefire, the issue of Gaza's borders, and the sensitive issue of exchanging Palestinian prisoners held in Israel for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit who was captured by Palestinian militias in 2006.
Israel, Nazzal said, insists on an open ceasefire with no commitments on its side. Hamas, meanwhile, is willing to accept a lull that would last one year or one year and a half. Another point of contention is that Israel is refusing to announce specific terms for the opening of border crossings between Gaza and Israel. The only remaining gateway for Gaza that is not under Israel's control is the Egyptian border crossing of Rafah, which Cairo is refusing to open or include in the talks separate an agreement signed in 2005 that put the crossing under European and Palestinian Authority control.
During Israel's 22-day war on Gaza and after it Hamas insisted it would not accept a ceasefire agreement that does not include fully lifting the 19-month long blockade on Gaza, including opening all border crossings, that has strangled the Strip's 1.5 million strong and largely impoverished population. It nonetheless appeared to accept a compromise in the past two weeks whereby it agrees to a conditional opening of the border crossings controlled by Israel, up to 70 per cent capacity.
Said Nazzal: "They are now negotiating percentages." Hamas is now faced with the option of "starving the Palestinians in Gaza by a certain percentage", he added. "How is this acceptable?" he asked.
Israel's brutal war on Gaza killed 1,400 Palestinians and left near 5500 injured. Tens of thousands remain homeless. Israel has been accused of the international crime of genocide as well as other crimes against humanity and war crimes during its 22-day offensive.
Although Hamas negotiator Salah El-Bardaweel stated in Cairo Tuesday his movement's readiness to discuss a prisoner swap deal as a matter of principle, it seems that this issue is likely to thwart progress in ceasefire agreement talks. Hamas, Cairo and Tel Aviv had temporarily shelved prisoner exchange talks during the past months and reviving them now and attaching the issue to the ceasefire is putting Hamas in an uneasy situation.
"We don't mind discussing a prisoner exchange, but we can't be rushed into sealing a deal just to meet the declared 5 February deadline," argued Nazzal. "What if we don't reach an agreement on the prisoner swap deal? What do we do meanwhile with the suffering of the besieged Palestinians in Gaza?"
There is "pressure" on the Hamas delegation in Cairo, Nazzal said, to accept an unfair deal "just to provide support for both [Israeli Foreign Minister] Tzipi Livni and [Defense Minister] Ehud Barak against Benyamin Netanyahu in the Israeli elections [on 10 February]."
Unnamed Egyptian sources have been making statements over the past two days alluding to "progress" in the Cairo talks with Hamas. Nazzal insists "this is not true and we don't want to deceive public opinion by saying there is progress."
Meanwhile a surprise closed-door meeting was held in Abu Dhabi Tuesday between the foreign ministers of nine Arab capitals to declare support for Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestine Liberation Organisation and vow to provide for the reconstruction of Gaza. A statement read by United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdallah Ben Zayed Al-Nahyan following the meeting said that "non Arab" interference in the Palestinian question was "unwelcome". This, observers say, is a message to Tehran.
Cairo-based Palestinian political analyst Abdel-Qader Yassin said that Abu Dhabi is now the "neutral" place for discussing the thorny Palestinian question as the Emirates "wasn't taking sides". But the objective of the Abu Dhabi meeting, he told the Weekly, is to align "moderate" states together against Iran.
The nine taking part in the meeting in Abu Dhabi were Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Yemen, Tunisia, Morocco and the Palestinian Authority. Other Arab states were not invited ó the states that attended the emergency Arab summit held 16 January in Doha that was boycotted by the so-called Arab "moderates".
UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon arrived in Abu Dhabi Tuesday while Abbas, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud El-Faisal and other attending Arab foreign ministers held a closed-door meeting. Ki Moon demanded that "all" Gaza's borders be opened to achieve the ceasefire.
Commenting on the secrecy that shrouded the Abu Dhabi closed-door meeting, Abdel-Qader Yassin said: "Something is being cooked against Iran."
"There are a lot of diplomatic activities that point to Western willingness to contain Hamas and include it in the political process," he added. After Abbas declared his vehement opposition to any talks with Hamas earlier this week, he reversed position Monday when he said reconciliation talks with Hamas are inevitable.
"Things are moving, but the doesn't mean there is progress," said Yassin.


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