Mona El-Nahhas plots the shifting sands of party politics For 12 months politics has been on everyone's lips. During the course of the last year 37 political parties were founded after restrictions were lifted on their registration. Blocs and alliances emerged, and for the first time since the 1952 Revolution free and transparent parliamentary polls were staged. Islamist forces, for decades prevented from playing any open political role, now dominate the scene. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya and various Salafist groups formed their own parties. And after a de facto ban on their representatives appearing on television screens they were suddenly everywhere. With its long established grassroots organisation the Muslim Brotherhood was expected to do well in the parliamentary polls. The Democratic Alliance, led by the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), trumped those expectations by securing 47 per cent of the 498 People's Assembly seats. The Salafist Nour party-led Islamist coalition came second, with 24 per cent of seats. Many commentators attributed the success of the FJP to the way it addressed voters -- simply, and in language they could understand. The success of the Nour was more unexpected, though its practice of using religious sermons to sway voters clearly paid off. But the results of the parliamentary polls, argues political analyst Hassan Nafaa, are a reflection of the tense situation Egypt is in and may well not be an indication of the various parties' long-term prospects. "In the near future, when political conditions become more stable, the political map will completely change," says Nafaa, who predicts the dominance of Islamist forces will be short lived. The past 12 months also saw liberal forces staking out a place on the political map as 15 parties emerged committed to building a modern civil state on the bases of citizenship, freedom and justice. During the current elections these newcomers achieved promising results. The Social Democratic Egyptian Party, founded by prominent political activist Mohamed Abul-Ghar got 24 seats, the Free Egyptian Party, led by Coptic businessman Naguib Sawiris won 13 and the Justice Party, chaired by young revolutionary Mustafa El-Naggar, won five. Political analyst Emad Gad warns against using the parliamentary election results as a measure of the long-term prospects of the new liberal forces. Only subsequent polls, he says, will show which have truly made a connection with the public. Nafaa attributes the smaller number of parliamentary seats won by the new liberal parties compared to the Islamists to the general climate of political unrest since the eruption of the revolution. "New parties and movements pushing the goals of the revolution have had too little time to make any real contact with the public or even build their own structures," he notes. Leftist parties fared less well. The Karama Party opted to join the FJP-led Democratic Alliance while the Socialist People's Alliance, a splinter of the Tagammu Party, formed its own coalition, the Revolution Continues, with various youth movements. They won nine parliamentary seats. Remnants of the former regime also kept a toehold in the political arena. Following the dissolving of the once all powerful National Democratic Party they rushed to form new political vehicles. In the end, though, they secured just 19 seats, a reflection of just how much vote rigging went into their sweeping majorities in the past. Apart from the Wafd, the pre- revolutionary political parties have been swept away by events. The leftist Tagammu Party managed just two parliamentary seats, though this was double the Nasserists' score. Even the Wafd's performance, with 45 seats, was disappointing given the party's legacy. "The elections clearly revealed the erosion in the support of the traditional parties," says Nafaa. "After decades of lending themselves to the regime's democratic window dressing they lost the public's trust. It's difficult to see what part they can have in the coming political map."
