What happens next following the Arab League's monitoring mission in Syria may affect the pan-Arab organisation as greatly as it does Damascus, writes Dina Ezzat On Saturday, the Arab League will hold a meeting to decide the fate of its mission in Syria, initiated 19 December with the support of the international community, to "end the violence" that started 10 months ago as Damascus sought to quell pro-democracy protests and calls for the end of the regime. Briefing the meeting as head of the monitoring mission, Mohamed El-Dabi would come from Syria while his team would continue -- so far -- its mandate due to expire 19 January. According to sources in the mission and at the Arab League, El-Dabi will not necessarily draw an image of terror in Syria. "It is true that we saw some clear atrocities of the regime against demonstrators, but the point is that the volume of these atrocities is not as bad as one might have concluded upon the reporting of Al-Jazeera or Al-Arabiya [the Qatari and Saudi owned news satellite channels]," one member of the mission told Al-Ahram Weekly. This account is shared by some Arab capitals in direct contact with El-Dabi. In the words of one Arab diplomat, "the assessment of the mission is that the regime is indeed quelling the demonstrators, but that the atrocities are not as bad as projected in some Arab media." According to the same source, the Syrian regime has indicated willingness to honour the demands of the Arab League, including pulling military vehicles and personnel from the heart of Syrian cities where the demonstrations have been particularly strong, to release some of the thousands of political prisoners rounded up during the past few months, and to guarantee the liberties of civil society and the Syria-based opposition. "I am not saying that the Syrian regime is willing to democratise, but I am saying that it is willing to accommodate. This is not getting any recognition, however, from Arab Gulf countries who seem inclined to abruptly refer the Syrian file to the UN Security Council," the same diplomatic source added. On Tuesday, the UN Security Council will hold a special session on Syria. According to Arab diplomats in New York, this session is unlikely to produce any earth-shaking resolutions, but is likely to reiterate the position expressed during this week by the US and France about the failure of the Syrian regime to honour the Arab League's stipulations. Whether or not the UN Security Council would move towards direct intervention depends a great deal on what will happen in Saturday's meeting at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League. Arab sources speak of a split between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members who wish to refer the matter -- with the support of in-exile Syrian opposition groups and several Western capitals -- to the UN Security Council, and other Arab countries inclined to give Damascus a chance. "Our wish to handle this matter under the Arab umbrella is not about a hidden plan to sustain the Syrian regime, although it is unwise to push for regime elimination when the alternative is likely to be chaotic," said one Arab diplomat whose capital is apprehensive about UN Security Council intervention. According to this and other Arab diplomats, what is really at stake is the fate of the Arab League. Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, the League was marginalised. Once the Egyptian revolution forced Hosni Mubarak to step down on 11 February, leading to the "liberation" of the Arab League from the "heavy handed bullying of the Egyptian state," according to one official, the Arab organisation moved towards a more engaging approach with the Libyan revolution. But this was not the case when it came to demonstrations in Yemen, or Bahrain -- a GCC member. In both cases, the Arab League was restrained if not blunted by GCC members. Today, it is the GCC -- especially Qatar -- that is taking the lead in deciding the next move of the Arab organisation on Syria. "The fact that a traditionally influential Arab capital like Cairo is so engrossed in its own concerns and that the current Arab League secretary-general, Nabil El-Arabi, is not willing to deviate an inch away from the tight mandate of the secretary-general as stipulated in the charter, are certainly factors that are making the domination of the Qatari position easier," argued another Arab League source. In non-GCC capitals, there is a growing concern at how the GCC is handling collective Arab issues, in particular amid suggestions of possible GCC membership for Arab monarchies in Morocco and Jordan. Relative to Syria, non-GCC Arab capitals see the push to refer the case to the UN Security Council as a watershed where the GCC would match political weight to its already substantial financial clout. (see p.6)
