The first stage of Egypt's first post-Mubarak parliamentary elections saw the silent majority turning out in their millions to vote despite continuing unrest and political divisions, Gamal Essam El-Din reports Although widely considered to be the most difficult, the first stage of Egypt's first parliamentary elections since the ouster of former president Hosni Mubarak in the country's 25 January Revolution went smoothly this week, with millions of voters turning out to cast their votes. This was the case despite the violence and street protests that marked the days leading up to the 28 November elections, which left more than 40 people dead. According to a report by Observers without Borders, a coalition of civil society organisations, the turnout in the two-day vote on 28 and 29 November is expected to be an unprecedented 70 per cent. This compares very favourably to the no more than 23 per cent turnout in previous polls conducted under the regime of former president Hosni Mubarak. The report quoted many voters saying that they were casting their ballots for the first time and that they expected their vote would make a difference. The report said that "logistical and technical problems hit just eight per cent of the ballots," to which Abdel-Moez Ibrahim, chairman of the Supreme Elections Commission (SEC), said that "such problems were expected because this is the first stage of the voting. Every effort will be made to avoid such problems in the coming two stages." Ibrahim ordered that voting be extended for two hours on Monday, in order to allow as many people as possible to cast their votes. In its report, Observers without Borders noted that supporters of the Democratic Alliance led by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and of the Egyptian Bloc had continued campaigning for their candidates on voting day and in front of polling stations. It accused the FJP and other Islamist parties, especially the Salafist Nour Party, of using religious slogans even though these are banned. Churches at various locations had instructed Coptic Christians to vote for the Egyptian Bloc, the group noted, which is a coalition that includes the Free Egyptian Party founded by Coptic businessman Naguib Sawiris, the leftist Tagammu Party and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. Observers believe that most independent and party-based candidates will not be able to achieve victory in the first round of the elections, given the large number of candidates standing. "The large number of candidates will cause a fragmentation of the votes among many candidates, and I expect that very few will be able to win outright in the first round," said SEC chairman Ibrahim. In the South Cairo constituency, which includes Helwan and Maadi, there were 132 independent candidates and 10 lists of party- based candidates. "This will not allow any candidate to win on the first round, and the majority will be forced to a run-off on 5 December," said Amr El-Shobaki, a political analyst at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. El-Shobaki said that he expected just two per cent of independent candidates to win in the first round, their total number being estimated at 2,362 across the country's nine governorates. Initial indications show that the main battle lines were drawn between the Islamists and liberals from the Egyptian Bloc. The fact that there was no sign that candidates who had been former members of the former ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) would do well in the elections did not come as a surprise. "In previous elections, when the silent majority of Egyptians abstained from voting, the Muslim Brotherhood was able to mobilise its supporters to cast their votes," said El-Shobaki. "This time things are rather different, because the silent majority has now decided to turn out in large numbers to vote, and many voters fear that the Islamists want to dominate the next parliament in order to impose their strict version of Islam." El-Shobaki said that he believed that "the performance of the Islamists in the few weeks before the ballot opened on Monday was very negative, and this could have left a bad effect on their showing in the elections. They boycotted the Tahrir Square protests, and they accused the liberals of being infidels and unbelievers," he said. "People's fears of the Islamists have now reached the extent that many voters have said they are ready to give their votes to any candidates apart from the Islamists." El-Shobaki added that, "the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist forces remain very important. They were able to mobilise their supporters, especially in Alexandria, and these will make a difference, if not quite as large a one as they did in previous elections." Several observers believe that the huge turnout in the elections also reflects a vote of confidence in the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Mohamed Anwar Esmat El-Sadat, a nephew of late president Anwar El-Sadat and chairman of the liberal Reform and Development Party, told Al-Ahram Weekly that the "SCAF has managed to get Egypt out of a two-week political crisis and organised the most democratic election in decades." Amir Hassan, a 45-year-old voter from Maadi south of Cairo, said that the "SCAF has faced a hostile campaign from the private- sector press and television channels over the last few weeks, unjustifiably accusing it of reneging on its earlier promises of a quick transition to democracy." Hassan added that the international press had also toed the line of the sensational media in Egypt, claiming that the SCAF was "no different from ousted president Mubarak". "We hope that it has become clear to all that the huge turnout in the elections is a renewed vote of confidence in the SCAF and its leaders, and that Egyptians do not want any more million-man marches in Tahrir Square," Hassan said. The international press, which has been attacking the SCAF over recent weeks, changed tack on Monday by praising the turnout in the elections and reporting that there had been few signs of irregularities. The US praised the smooth way in which the elections had been run, despite the protests that had led up to them. US Ambassador to Egypt Ann Patterson praised the elections as an exercise in democracy, indicating that the US would be prepared to back the results despite minor complaints of the breaking of some electoral laws. Patterson said that "I'd like to congratulate the Egyptian people on what appeared to be a very large turnout on this very historic occasion." She visited the operations room at the National Council of Human Rights to see how monitoring of the elections was proceeding, along with many EU ambassadors and the ambassador of Japan. The White House and State Department also expressed their satisfaction with the elections. According to White House press secretary Jay Carney on 28 November, "the elections have gone well, and we welcome that development. The fact of the matter is that the democratic process is what's important." The international NGO Amnesty International also said that no serious irregularities had been noted during the first round of voting in the elections. A large number of foreign and local civil society organisations took part in monitoring the polls for the first time, with observers coming from the US-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems, the Carter Center at Emory University, and the National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute. The observers toured a number of polling stations in Cairo, and reported positive experiences. Leslie Campbell, Middle East regional director at the Washington DC-based National Democratic Institute and one of the observers, told the Weekly that the elections had been a "turning point" in Egypt's history and added that "I have not come across any indications that intimidation or vote tampering are taking place." "There is a feeling of optimism and a feeling of participation," Campbell said, after visiting a polling station in downtown Cairo. "Outside many polling stations, you get the feeling that this is a turning point, that people are getting to cast a ballot for the party of their choice." Campbell also noted that the huge turnout had come despite the tension that enveloped the country after 10 days of street protests and unrest. "Most Egyptians were very discouraged about the future, discouraged about where the revolution was going," he said. However, "the election came to give Egyptians the first chance to choose their government since the fall of former president Hosni Mubarak and create a new climate of optimism about the future." Foreign observers noted that the elections had sidelined the protesters in Tahrir Square. On election day on Monday, only a few thousand demonstrators were continuing to occupy the square, a far cry from the hundreds of thousands who massed on 19 November to call for the immediate transfer of power to a civilian presidential council and the appointment of a national salvation government to oversee a transition to democracy. Some Tahrir protesters boycotted Monday's polls, while others stood in line only to write rebellious comments in the margins of their ballots. Most television channels that had focussed on Tahrir Square for more than a week opted to give priority to the ballot. For their part, the Tahrir protesters said the elections should have been postponed, especially after more than 40 people were killed during last week's violence. According to El-Sadat, the run-off stage scheduled for next Monday will be the most exciting "because it will give the first real indications of the forces that will dominate the upcoming parliament." "While it could be discouraging for some forces, it will be encouraging for others," El-Sadat said. "However, everyone should accept the outcome irrespective of the results." The first stage of the elections was held in nine governorates, including Cairo, Alexandria, Damietta, Kafr Al-Sheikh, Fayoum, Assiut, Luxor and the Red Sea. 2,362 independents and 193 lists of party-based candidates stood in the elections to contest 168 seats, 56 of them reserved for independents and 112 to be decided by proportional representation. This forms almost one third of the total number of 498 seats in the new People's Assembly, the lower house of Egypt's parliament. The holders of an additional 10 seats will be appointed.
