Relations between Turkey and Israel have virtually collapsed, reports Gareth Jenkins from Ankara Long-running tensions between Turkey and Israel reached breaking point last Friday when Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) expelled the Israeli ambassador to Ankara, suspended military cooperation agreements between the two countries and vowed to take Israel's naval blockade of Gaza to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The announcement followed the publication on the New York Times website late on Thursday night of a leaked copy of the UN report on the Israeli raid on the Turkish aid flotilla to Gaza on 31 May 2010. Nine ethnic Turks were killed when Israeli commandos boarded the flotilla's flagship, the Mavi Marmara, while it was still in international waters. The brutality of the Israeli assault triggered a furious protest by Turkey and was widely condemned by the international community. In the aftermath of the attack, the AKP threatened to downgrade its diplomatic relations with Israel unless it apologised, paid reparations to the families of the slain and lifted the blockade of Gaza, all of which Israel refused to do. Over the last 15 months, there have been several discreet diplomatic contacts between Turkey and Israel in an attempt to resolve the crisis. All failed. In recent months, Turkey had delayed taking concrete action against Israel pending the publication of the UN report, which it confidently expected to vindicate its position. AKP officials had even accused Israel of trying to delay the publication of the report for fear of its conclusions. But, contrary to expectations, the report was broadly supportive of Israel's position. Although it condemned what it described as the use of "excessive force" by the Israeli commandos who boarded the Mavi Marmara, the report found that they had met organised, violent resistance. Most surprisingly, the report also upheld what it described as Israel's right to enforce a naval blockade on Gaza and intercept vessels sailing towards the enclave on the grounds that they might be carrying weapons to anti-Israel militant groups based there. The publication of the report's findings was greeted with dismay and confusion in Ankara. On Friday morning, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu held a press conference to announce a series of sanctions against Israel. Davutoglu announced that Turkey was downgrading its diplomatic relations with Israel to second secretary level and gave all Israeli diplomats above that rank five days to leave the country. He also declared that Turkey was suspending the military training and defence cooperation agreements with Israel first signed in 1996, that it would take the blockade of Gaza to the ICJ, and that it would support legal efforts by the families of the nine people killed on the Mavi Marmara to seek compensation from Israel. Most controversially, Davutoglu said that Turkey would take measures to ensure "freedom of navigation" in the eastern Mediterranean. He failed to give any details although Turkish officials privately reported that the AKP was considering providing naval escorts to shipping in international waters, although they refused to comment on whether this would include providing military support for another attempt to break the blockade on Gaza. Turkish President Abdullah Gul subsequently announced that Turkey regarded the UN report as "null and void" and warned that more sanctions against Israel could follow. However, Turkish officials dismissed suggestions that these could include economic measures. Turkey currently enjoys a large surplus in its bilateral trade with Israel. The downgrading of diplomatic ties is undoubtedly a major blow to Israel, which, though it dislikes and distrusts the AKP, had been anxious to reestablish a working relationship with Turkey. In practice, military training cooperation between Turkey and Israel had already come to a halt in the aftermath of Israel's deadly military assault on Gaza in December 2008. The suspension of defence industry ties is likely to harm Turkey at least as much as Israel. In recent years, Israel had become an important partner for Turkey, upgrading Turkish tanks and warplanes and supplying Ankara with 10 Heron unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which now play an important role in intelligence gathering against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Turkey is also likely to face difficulties at the ICJ. In order for any decision of the ICJ to be binding, both parties to a dispute have to agree in advance to abide by the court's decision, something that Israel is never going to do. There are also likely to be mixed feelings in the region about some of the implications of the measures announced by Davutoglu. Turkey's decision to downgrade its diplomatic relations will undoubtedly be welcomed by many in the region who have been exasperated by the failure of other countries to follow up condemnations of Israeli policies with concrete sanctions. However, Davutoglu's announcement that Turkey will singlehandedly enforce freedom of navigation in the eastern Mediterranean will have reinforced concerns that AKP now regards the Middle East as constituting a Turkish sphere of influence, and further fuel accusations that its policy of engagement with the region is based on desire for neo-Ottoman domination rather than cooperation and equal partnership.
