By Mohamed El-Masri So far, six candidates have announced they will be running for Israel's top political post in the elections which are now scheduled for 17 May. The big surprise is not their number, but the fact that most of the candidates have emerged from within Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's divided right-wing camp. And, according to reports coming out of Israel, their number could yet rise to eight, or maybe even a dozen. The main loser in this game, according to Israeli opinion polls, will be the besieged Netanyahu who seems to have lost the trust of all parties, including his own Likud, where lawmaker Uzi Landau is challenging him for the party's leadership. As for the Israeli left, there is only one candidate so far, Labour Party leader Ehud Barak. The former Israeli army general is seen by many Israelis and Arabs as just as much an extremist in his policies towards Palestinians as Netanyahu. Moreover, many Israelis do not believe Barak has the charisma needed to become Israel's leader. Both major parties, meanwhile, have shown signs of feeling threatened by a new candidate for the prime minister's post, former Israeli army chief Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, who has said he will form a new centrist party to challenge Netanyahu. Opinion polls show Barak and Shahak as the only two candidates who have some chance of beating Netanyahu. Yet despite this positive reception, the Israeli general seems to be weighing his options carefully. Former Finance minister Dan Meridor, a bitter critic of Netanyahu, and former Tel Aviv mayor and ex-Likud member Roni Milo have been mentioned as possible allies for Shahak in his proposed centrist party. The alliance could become even stronger if Israeli Defence Minister Yitzhak Mordechai decides to join his former comrade in arms. Mordechai, who has been openly critical of Netanyahu's peace policy and his insistence on delaying implementation of agreements reached with the Palestinians, said on Tuesday that he was uncertain now as to whether his future lay within Likud. Putting a brave face on this unsettling turn of events, Netanyahu brushed aside claims that his grip on the Likud party was slipping in statements to Israeli radio yesterday. Asked if he was afraid that hawkish Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon might run against him, Netanyahu replied, "I don't think so. I spoke today with the foreign minister. We had a good talk." Sharon, who is held to be responsible for the 1982 massacres of thousands of Palestinians in the Sabra and Shatila camps in Lebanon, said on Monday that he could envisage himself as a candidate to lead Israel under unspecified "special circumstances". A further slap in the face for Netanyahu came from his former foreign minister, David Levy, whose Gesher Party has agreed in principle to team up with Labour to field a joint list to contest the elections. The leader of Israel's extreme-right nationalist Tzomet Party, Raphael Eytan, also announced late Tuesday that he would be standing for prime minister. Eytan, who was chief of the armed forces when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, is agriculture and environment minister in the outgoing Netanyahu coalition. Earlier this week, ultra-nationalist Benny Begin quit Likud to form his own party and vie for the top government post. In addition to this proliferation of candidates, there is one other major player whose choices can help determine the outcome of the Israeli elections, and that is Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. Israeli commentators expressed fear that if Arafat went ahead with his threat to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state on 4 May 1999 -- when the 1993 interim Oslo peace accord expires -- this move would bolster support for Netanyahu. Netanyahu has already tried to pre-empt the statehood issue, boasting that the Palestinians would not dare declare independence two weeks before the election, for fear of propelling him back into office. But the Palestinians could easily turn this fear to their advantage, postponing their decision, while warning that if Netanyahu were to win the elections, they would retaliate with a swift declaration of statehood. In remarks published yesterday, Palestinian Parliament Speaker Ahmed Qurie, known as Abu Alaa, said the 4 May statehood plans were as alive as ever. "Everything is running as scheduled," he said. One thing is certain: in the light of the division and fragmentation which has overtaken the Israeli political scene in the past few weeks, the Palestinians now have some reason to hope that, one way or another, their state will come, and Netanyahu will go, taking with him all his false promises and unfulfilled agreements.
