According to a new study, renewed conflict in Sudan would not only spark a humanitarian disaster in the country, but also an economic downward spiral, Dina Ezzat reports Against a backdrop of tension between the north and south of Sudan over preparations -- or the lack thereof -- for a referendum scheduled 9 January 2011 on the secession of the south, an international report that should be issued today calls for accelerating progress towards a peaceful referendum in view of recognising the right of the people of the south to self- determination. Drafted by Frontier and Aegis, two international non-governmental organisations, the report also calls on all concerned foreign parties to use their diplomatic leverage to assist the Sudanese to reach agreement on outstanding issues, including border demarcation, especially in relation to oil rich Abyei which is claimed by both sides, the sharing of oil reservoirs and revenues, and the issue of citizenship for northerners living in the south and vice versa. The report further calls on the UN Mission in Sudan to engage in preventive deployments "in flashpoint areas", including Abyei, in which the risk of violence is acute. Meanwhile, the report underlines the importance of getting the public commitment of the National Congress Party of Sudan, the ruling power in the north, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), the ruling power in the south, to work on preserving the interests and rights of citizens on both sides, including rights of movement. The Cost of Future Conflict in Sudan, a 35-page document, aims in particular to assess the possible economic cost of a new war that could erupt, as many governmental and non-governmental bodies fear, between the north and the south in case the referendum is conducted without sufficient preparation, especially absent agreement on demarcation lines, the correct registration of southern voters, and fair monitoring of the voting process. The basic message of the report is that "a return to war in Sudan could be a humanitarian disaster" bringing death, displacement and violence beyond measure. As for the economic cost, the report makes a "conservative estimate of $100 billion" to Sudan alone (not to mention the cost on neighbouring states, including Egypt, that would have to worry about refugees and suspended trade and transport, and to states with major investments in Sudan, including China). For Egypt, the cost of a new war in Sudan, the report suggests, "could average over $7 billion per year". The report also accounts the possible huge increase in humanitarian assistance and subsequent peacekeeping operations for around 10 years. The report examines alternative scenarios for a new war in Sudan: the low intensity conflict scenario whereby both the north and south accept the result of the referendum but fail to agree on subsequent measures; a medium intensity conflict scenario whereby Khartoum refuses to accept the vote for separation, leading to a deterioration of the security situation into a civil war; and a high intensity conflict scenario whereby the Khartoum regime refuses the results of the referendum and as a result violence escalates and Sudan becomes a failed state. Indeed, the report comes against a backdrop of threats by the Khartoum regime that it would not recognise the results of a referendum conducted in the absence of sufficient guarantees of the voting process. Reports are already suggesting that threats have been extended to citizens of southern Sudan living in Uganda to register for the referendum or to face death. For the Khartoum regime, this is indication of an attempt by the SPLM to impose separation on citizens that do not wish to take that path. The Cost of Future Conflict in Sudan also notes that civil wars in Sudan -- whether between the north and south, or in Darfur -- "have been extremely destructive" and could still be, as they significantly reduce physical capital, reduce the labour force, damage infrastructure and discourage investments. The report, however, does not exclude a "peace scenario" by which "both sides accept the results of the referendum" and manage, with international help, to resolve outstanding issues and gradually move to improve the security situation, reduce military expenditure, and expand development.
