A new Middle East seems to be shaping on four fronts, seemingly at the cost of Arab capitals, writes Dina Ezzat This week, international troops were deployed in South Lebanon as a buffer between the fighters of Hizbullah and the Israeli army in accordance with UN Security Council resolution 1701. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said that by next week some 5,000 troops could be stationed across the south. Meanwhile, under UN Security Council resolution 1706, Sudan is obliged to accept international peacekeepers that will enforce peace between Sudanese government forces and armed opposition groups in Sudan's westernmost war-torn province of Darfur. "We believe that we have to win the Khartoum government over," said Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit. Annan, at a joint press conference with Abul-Gheit in Alexandria Tuesday, was less tender. If Sudan chooses not to cooperate, he said, "it will have to answer to the international community," hinting that it might face sanctions. During a recent regional tour, Annan said that the UN would continue its efforts along with leading European players to find a settlement to the Iranian nuclear standoff. In an early sign of willingness to cooperate with the international community on regional concerns, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this week offered a visiting Annan confirmation that Tehran will support the implementation of resolution 1701 that brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon after a five-week war. With so much diplomatic movement, hopes are that positive momentum can be grasped and some of the regions' lasting conflicts addressed. On 21 September, according to Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, Arab countries are going to participate in a Security Council meeting at the ministerial level to argue the need for direct intervention by the Council -- along with other traditional key players, especially the US -- to promote a "new peace process" that could lead to a settlement to the Arab-Israeli conflict within a reasonable time span. Indeed, during his Middle East tour that included Beirut, Jerusalem, Amman, Damascus, Tehran, Doha, Jedda, Alexandria and Ankara, Annan and all of his hosts made statements indicating that all regional problems will now be handled primarily through the UN Security Council, rather than by regional capitals and organisations. For example, in a statement to the press made in Alexandria Annan announced that would be "only" within the framework of UN efforts, and through a special facilitator that he would soon appoint, that a prisoner swap will be clinched and the Israeli blockade on Lebanon lifted. For their part, Arab foreign ministers meeting at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League yesterday focused on four main issues: formulating a collective Arab position to propose to the Security Council as the basis for new Arab-Israeli negotiations; encouraging the commitment of all Arab parties, including Syria, to the implementation of resolution 1701; encouraging the Sudanese government to cooperate with resolution 1706; and examining the impact of recent developments vis-à- vis the Iranian issue and ongoing violence in Iraq on security and stability in the Gulf. Speaking to the press on the fringe of their meetings and in joint press conferences with Annan, Arab foreign ministers seemed willing to accept that the ability of Arab capitals to influence regional developments has declined and that it may now be possible for them to impact regional affairs only through engaging in international forums. The rationale for international management of Middle East problems was echoed when Iraqi Foreign Minister Houchair Zibari insisted that all realistic approaches towards the crisis in Iraq will have to take into consideration the crucial role that US troops play in Iraq, and that the continued presence of these troops, for a while, is essential prospects of stability. Off the record, Arab diplomats admit to learning two key lessons from the Lebanon war: that Arabs are too weak and too divided to be able to force Israel or any international player to consider Arab interests; and that there are unmistakable signs of a different regional order appearing that Arabs need to play within or be from now on irrelevant. The new regional order, they say, will necessarily include an acceptance of the growing influence of the three non-Arab Middle East countries -- Israel, Iran and Turkey -- each of which appears to have a bigger say in regional affairs than Arab countries do collectively. Diplomats argue that within this new regional order there will be little room for political manoeuvres. The power game from now on will be rather clear-cut. Syria this week, Annan told reporters, agreed to increase the number of guards on its border with Lebanon and to "take all necessary measures" to curb the flow of arms to Hizbullah as stipulated in resolution 1701. For this declared commitment, Syria was offered a promise from Annan that it will be rescued from isolation. Iran, too, is playing along. According to statements made by Annan following talks in Tehran, Iranian positions were "helpful". Curbing support to Hizbullah in return for Israel's commitment to the fragile truce and exercising influence of over Shia militants in Iraq in return for lesser constraints on its nuclear research programme, seems to be Tehran's way forward. The growing acceptance of a period of change on the side of all players surely prompted Annan to report a successful mission and to indicate a true opportunity for "peace and security in the Middle East." Meanwhile, the final shape of a future Middle East, European sources indicate, is likely to be drawn through an international conference that the EU and the Arab League both support despite Israeli opposition and US reluctance. If in the new Middle East international involvement is paramount, Arab countries will have to give up on plans to take fate into their own hands. However, Arab diplomats are assuring observers that Arab states will benefit. Mentioned is the potential restoration of most Arab territories annexed by Israel during the 1967 war, the end of threats of economic sanctions, and perhaps constructive development aid, especially in the case of Palestine. The important thing, proffered Hesham Youssef, chief of cabinet of the Arab League secretary general, is for Arabs to prevent the reoccurrence of the mishandling of Middle East issues by international powers that led to recurrent regional tribulations.
