Saudi Arabia had called for an emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers 10 days ago amidst growing tensions between the Iranian and Saudi governments. The call came as an attempt on the part of the Saudis to rally Arab support for Saudi positions towards a host of regional questions that have become hostage to this region-wide confrontation between Riyadh and Tehran. In these times of radical changes within Saudi Arabia, with the expectation that the present crown prince, Mohamed bin Salman, would ascend to the throne, replacing his father king, Saudi Arabia finds itself isolated on the international scene and failing to mobilise a united Arab front to support its regional policies. Bogged down in Yemen, stalemated in its confrontation with another Gulf country, Qatar, depleting state coffers with stagnating oil prices, and facing in the meantime ever-expanding and well-entrenched Iranian influence on the course of events in countries that have been traditionally pro-Saudi — including Lebanon, Yemen and Syria, for example — the Saudis badly need Arab support as a precondition for galvanising international support in its face-off with Iran. The purpose behind the call for this emergency meeting has been to condemn “Iranian interference” in Arab affairs and the launching of a ballistic missile from Yemeni-held territories against King Khaled International Airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on Saturday, 4 November, after the prime minister of Lebanon Saad Al-Hariri, read his letter of resignation from Riyadh — a first of its kind that a sitting prime minister announces his resignation from a foreign land — in which he launched a virulent attack on the Lebanese Hizbullah as well as Iranian policies in the Middle East. Al-Hariri accused Hizbullah of being a “state within a state” despite the fact that he had accepted, almost one year ago, to form a cabinet with ministers representing this very same Lebanese political party, in a political deal with the various political parties and forces that brought Michel Aoun to the presidency in Lebanon after more than 24 months with the post vacant. The deal had been interpreted, then, as a positive sign in Saudi-Iranian relations, an interpretation that was accompanied, worldwide, with hope that it would herald a new and promising chapter in relations between the two regional rivals. The mysterious circumstances surrounding Al-Hariri's resignation and the fact that the Arab ministers would gather before his return to his home country cast doubt on the proceedings of the emergency meeting. It would have been much more advisable to wait for his return before convening this urgent ministerial. It is true that the Lebanese president announced Saturday, 18 November, that Al-Hariri would be back to Lebanon by Wednesday, 22 November, to take part in the official celebration of Independence Day. Meanwhile, the French President Emmanuel Macron, received Al-Hariri and his family at the Elysees Palace 18 November. However, the fact remains that the Arab foreign ministers would gather under highly abnormal circumstances in Lebanon, a situation that would put the Saudi delegation in an uncomfortable position. Needless to say, the meeting would condemn the targeting of Saudi Arabia by ballistic missiles and all those responsible for the delivery of such weapons to the Yemeni forces battling the Saudis. It goes without saying that these missiles can reach anywhere in the Arab Peninsula, in the Middle East and Egypt. So, these ballistic missiles pose a serious threat to Arab and Gulf powers, and accordingly there will be a consensus on the need to stop the delivery of such weapons to Yemen. However, the question uppermost on the minds of many Arab delegations would be how to put an end to the war in Yemen that has lasted too long without any respite in sight, after causing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis for the Yemeni people. The Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Gueterres, has called this war “a stupid war”. Some Arab delegations would question the motives behind this long war and would demand the immediate delivery of humanitarian assistance to the Yemenis. That would necessitate the lifting of the blockade imposed by the Saudis on all points of entry to Yemen after the ballistic missile attack against Riyadh early this month. Another major stumbling block before this emergency meeting is the persistent rumour that the Saudis and the Israelis could be contemplating an unannounced alliance against Iran and pro-Iranian groups within the Arab world, particularly Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. The mere fact that such a rumour is in the air, and I am not dealing with whether it is founded or not, would detract from all-out support for the Saudi position at the meeting. The emergency meeting called for by the Saudis coincided with an unprecedented interview with the Israeli chief of staff conducted by an online Saudi paper based in London, published 14 November. In this interview, the Israeli military official said that, “We need to carry out a large comprehensive strategic plan to stop the Iranian threat.” If the threat perception of Iran is shared by the Saudis and the Israelis, I am not at all sure that most Arab countries, and Egypt is no exception, are in the same boat. To drive the message home, the Egyptian president stressed 8 November that Egypt would not take punitive measures against Hizbullah. It is a wise decision. If we stand by the Saudis in facing any direct attacks on Saudi territories, that should not mean that our positions are completely aligned when it comes to the various grave crises in the Middle East. One such crisis is Lebanon. Nor that Egypt would go all the way to support any new military adventure in the region. The emergency meeting of the Arab foreign ministers could have been organised under better circumstances. It would be considered a meeting of the lowest common denominator. Many Arab delegates attended with the hope that the Arab League won't be an instrument to legitimise a future military confrontation with Hizbullah, nor would the resolution adopted by the urgent meeting of Arab foreign ministers be used as political cover to undermine the shaky political equilibrium in Lebanon among its various political parties. They have in mind how the UN Security Council, on the basis of a resolution of the Arab League concerning the situation in Libya in early 2011, passed Security Council Resolution 1973 in March 2011 that “empowered” NATO to attack and decimate the Libyan army. I doubt if most Arab countries would like to go along with a similar scenario in Lebanon. They already know the consequences. The writer is former assistant to the foreign minister.
