For Theresa May, calling for a snap election 8 June is an act of political shrewdness bordering on Machiavellianism. The British prime minister dared the disarrayed opposition parties to accept an early snap election “to put up or shut up” on her Brexit plan. The opposition parties had no choice but to accept, even though some of them, the Labour Party in particular, knew it could be suicidal. So, Britain for a third time in two years is heading back to the polls. But for the British public, this election is very tricky indeed. This is because the main question of any election — “What are we voting for?” — has so many different answers. This is not your regular every five-year election cycle. This is the “Brexit election”. The issues on the table include not only the economy, the NHS, immigration, unemployment, environmental issues, security and the fight against extremism. It is about all of those, plus Brexit and the future relationship with the EU. The Conservative Party says this election is about “leadership”, while Labour says it is mainly about the NHS and the economy. For the Liberal Democrats, it is about one thing and one thing only: Brexit. While for the Scottish National Party it is about “independence from the tyranny” of the Conservative Party in Westminster that is forcing Scotland outside the EU and the single European market without its consent. Finally, for the far-right party, the UKIP, the election is apparently about “identity”. The complexity of the matter makes for a very intriguing election race. As one confused voter told Al-Ahram Weekly: “I trust Theresa May's ability as a leader, but I do not like her plans about a hard Brexit. I do not like the labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, but I agree with the Labour Manifesto regarding taxation and the NHS. And while I think the Liberal Democrats have the best manifesto regarding Brexit, and I agree totally with them, I am not sure their leader, Tim Farron, has the charisma to attract voters. And as for the UKIP, they are finished.” Mrs May in calling for a snap election, a U- turn that stunned Westminster, said: “The country is coming together but Westminster is not,” emphasising that “Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit,” and calling for the British public to give her the mandate she needs for the negotiations with the EU. Currently, Mrs May has a fragile working majority of just 17 in the House of Commons. Winning big in June would strength her hand and give her the mandate she wants until 2022. However, a vote to increase the Conservative Party's share and give her government a mandate for a hard Brexit could backfire. Almost half of the British public opposed Brexit all together, soft or hard. Even Brussels was not impressed. One of the EU's top Brexit negotiators, Guy Verhofstadt, slammed Mrs May's election “power grab”, emphasising that the result of the snap election will be an irrelevance in Brussels. His comments came after US President Donald Trump bumped Britain down the queue when German Chancellor Angela Merkel “had to explain fundamentals of EU trade to Donald Trump 11 times” to convince him to make a EU-US trade deal first after the US president repeatedly asked Merkel to do a deal directly between Germany and the US, according to a senior German official. This is not good news for Britain and May's government might find itself in need to rework its Brexit strategy. On the other hand, the Labour Party vows to scrap the Brexit white paper and replace it with new negotiating priorities with an emphasis on keeping the benefits of the single market and the customs union, if they were to win the elections. They are also pledging to unilaterally guarantee existing rights for all EU nationals as part of the party's election manifesto, emphasising that “A Labour government will set out a new Brexit strategy… A Labour approach to Brexit means legislating to guarantee that parliament has a truly meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal.” However, this change in tone regarding Brexit is not good enough for the Liberal Democrats who enter this election with very clear vision: Reverse Brexit if possible and give the British public a final say, in a second referendum. According to their strategy, the Liberal Democrats will be targeting all the seats held by Labour or Conservative MPs in constituencies that voted to Remain last June. And if the Liberal Democrats manage to draw enough votes from the Remain camp, the party could derail the Brexit process or at least make sure it is as soft as possible. So, the message from the Liberal Democrats to the Remain camp is: “We are the only party in town that could reverse Brexit. Vote for us and forget Labour.” After all, they argue, it is Labour's fault that Mrs May called for a snap election. Had the Labour leader shown more leadership qualities, Mrs May would not have found it irresistibly tempting to call for an early election. In Mrs May's camp, they counter this argument by saying that all the talk about reversing Brexit is a diversion. For them, the question of 8 June is about who the voters trust the most to manage the country and the Brexit talks. To their mind, the answer is beyond doubt. Mrs May's assertive leadership paid dividends so far and she is on the brink of achieving what no other conservative prime minster has done before, which is beating the Labour Party in its heartland in North England and Wales, and gaining more seats in Scotland. According to latest polls, Theresa May's Conservatives lead Labour by a huge 21 points. A YouGov survey published a day before she called for a snap election stated that 44 per cent of Brits intend to vote for the Tories at the next elections, up two per cent on the company's last poll. Some 23 per cent of respondents said they plan to vote Labour. The main opposition party would need a massive shift in public sentiment to win a June election, these polls suggest. But even more importantly, new figures, released this week show the Conservatives leading the race in Wales for the first time in polling history. The Conservatives have overturned a five-point Labour lead in January and now sit a full 10 points ahead of their rivals. The latest YouGov/ITV Wales poll of Welsh voters show figures of Conservatives 40 per cent (+12), Labour 30 per cent (-3). Professor of political science at Cardiff University, Roger Scully, says the country is “on the brink of an electoral earthquake”. “The Conservatives have not won a majority of Welsh seats at a general election since the 1850s, before the era of mass democracy. For the Conservatives, potentially to be in a position not merely to finish ahead of Labour, but even to win over half the seats in Wales, indicates that we are on the brink of something truly seismic,” he said. The threats that face Labour confront the UKIP also. After achieving their ultimate goal, which is getting the UK to vote to leave the EU, the party is still in a soul-searching mode. And the snap election will only increase their predicament in trying to find what it means to be a far-right wing party in British politics today after Brexit. Caught by the early election and with no core slogan or a new selling point, UKIP is turning towards a radical right-wing agenda. Playing on increasing Islamophobia in Europe, UKIP wants a temporary prohibition of new Islamic schools in the state system, a ban on face coverings in public places, and outlawing Sharia courts. But British voters have a lot on their plates and Islamic schools and a ban on face coverings in public places seem to be marginal compared to more pressing issues. So, despite the move to a far right-wing agenda, the writing is on the wall for UKIP. Douglas Carswell, former MP for UKIP, said this week: “It's over. Most of the 3.8 million who voted UKIP last time are switching to Theresa May instead.” While high-profile figures from UKIP decided not to stand in June elections, the party's leader has yet to announce his candidacy. Brexit has changed the political landscape of British politics. It showed the weak leadership of the Labour Party, the demise of UKIP, the revival of the Liberal Democrats, the determination of the Scottish National Party to have a second independence referendum and above all the ability of the Conservative Party to unite and make the most of tricky and uncertain times. Last June, the British people had to consider whether they wanted Britain to leave or remain in the European Union, and they were divided down the middle. This June they have to consider much more complicated questions, such as what kind of Brexit will be preferable? Who can deliver it better? How to save the NHS? Does the economy need more cuts or more spending? If Mrs May wins with a landslide, as expected, she would have the mandate she asked for and she will not have dissent in parliament. However, there is always a cost of ruling almost alone. And with the unpredictability of the Brexit process and outcome, it may be better to have allies outside the party.
