The Tripartite National Committee on the Renaissance Dam (TNCRD) met in Cairo on 23 April to discuss the initial report by consultancy firms BRL and Artelia commissioned to assess the possible impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on downstream countries Egypt and Sudan. During the meeting, the committee discussed the report and remarks made on it by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan. The observations should be considered by the consultancy firms while preparing their final report. The discussions, which lasted four days, were conducted three days after President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi met Workneh Gebeyehu, the Ethiopian foreign minister in Cairo. During the meeting, Al-Sisi stressed the importance of positive interaction with the consultancy firms responsible for implementing studies on the GERD and to conclude their work as soon as possible. In a statement, TNCRD said the firms should work within the countries' commitment to “the technical preview and referential conditions”. The studies by the French firms, expected to be finalised in August, include the managing of water and hydroelectric resources as well as an assessment of the cross-border environmental, social and economic impact of the dam. Egypt is concerned over GERD's effects on its 55.5 billion cubic metre share of Nile water, as the dam is expected to be Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant with a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic metres.While Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are awaiting final studies being conducted by the French firms on the dam's impact, many experts believe the dam will start to be filled in July 2017 regardless of the report's recommendations, amid Egyptian concerns over the Ethiopian side and whether it will try not to harm Egypt's interests and water resources.Hani Sewilam, managing director of the UNESCO chair on Hydrological Changes and Water Resources Management at Germany's RWTH Aachen University, said it was “nonsense to assess GERD's impact after its construction,” referring to the three countries, especially Egypt, which is awaiting the final report. Al-Sisi said during his meeting with Gebeyehu that an agreement must be reached on the regulations governing the filling of GERD with the River Nile. “The process should be in accordance with the Declaration of Principles signed in Khartoum,” Al-Sisi said, stressing the importance of ongoing cooperation between Egypt and Ethiopia to ensure the best utilisation of shared water resources between the Nile Basin countries in a way that achieves development for all parties. “We have never heard of this in the history of engineering,” Sewilam said. “Usually, the country intending to build a dam [Ethiopia] in consultation with downstream countries [Egypt and Sudan] carries out all the studies, design scenarios, assess economic, social and environmental impact, then selects the design scenario with the minimum negative impact and maximum positive impact. “In our case, by the time the two firms complete the impact studies, the construction of the dam will be completed. What will Egypt do if the studies show significant impact on downstream countries? Will we destroy the dam? Will we be able to modify the body of an existing dam?” Sewilam asked.Ayman Salama, professor of international law and member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs (ECFA), pointed out that Egypt does not have the right to ask Ethiopia to stop building under any condition. “The March declaration, signed last year by Al-Sisi, Ethiopian Prime Minster Hailemariam Desalegn and Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir did not stipulate that any of the countries can ask Addis Ababa to stop construction under any conditions,” Salama said.So, what options does Egypt have? Sherine Al-Baradei, assistant professor in the Department of Construction and Architectural Engineering at the American University in Cairo, said that both Egypt and Ethiopia can reach an agreement which stipulates that when it's the agricultural season for Egypt's peasants, Ethiopia cannot close the dam's gate to generate electricity since we will be in need of water for the inauguration process, especially since 85 per cent of Nile water goes to agriculture and the remaining 15 per cent is for drinking,” Al-Baradei said. She said Egypt needs to persuade Ethiopia to increase the dam's filling up period, set from five to seven years. She said that a set period will reduce Egypt's share of water from 25 to 12 per cent while adding more years will minimise the detrimental effects of the dam. In an interview with state TV last week, Prime Minster Sherif Ismail said the biggest dilemma was the number of years it will take to fill the dam. Ismail said Egypt is currently negotiating with Ethiopia in order to ensure a range of nine to 12 years.But for Nader Noureddin, professor of water resources at Cairo University, Egypt's stance on the Renaissance Dam is “backwards and critical.“In July, Ethiopia will start the first stage of generating electricity and by October 2017 the dam is expected to operate at full capacity. This means that a very large amount of water will be retained behind the dam,” said Noureddin. He argued that Egypt should negotiate with the Ethiopians on reducing the height of the project's smaller side dam, which is currently 45 metres high, and try to reduce it to between 20 to 22 metres, as the current height would allow the dam to hold 60 billion cubic metres of water. The main dam, although 145 metres high, will retain only 14 billion cubic metres of water, as it is surrounded by 16 electricity generating turbines. “The main dam is allocated for generating electricity while the side dam is just for water reserves and won't affect power generation in Ethiopia if the amount of reserve water is reduced,” Noureddin added.
