Over the next few weeks, the Lebanese border town of Arsal may be heading towards peace or war, depending on Hizbullah's mood on the one hand and the ability of the Al-Nusrah Front to strike a deal with the Lebanese army on the other. In recent public comments about the situation in the predominantly Sunni town of Arsal, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has waxed lyrical about the amity between the Shia and the inhabitants of town, but warned that the presence of Sunni militants from both Islamic State (IS) and the Al-Nusrah Front in the arid land near Arsal, known as Jurud Arsal, “cannot be tolerated for long”. According to Nasrallah, the people of the predominantly-Shia northern Biqaa Valley “cannot put up with” the Sunni militants much longer. He made it clear that Hizbullah was willing to eliminate the pocket of Sunni militants in Jurud Arsal by force if necessary. However, Hizbullah was the one that allowed this pocket to form when it expelled gunmen from the Syrian town of Yabrud but allowed them to proceed unmolested to the border zone. It is believed that 3,000 or more Islamist fighters from both IS and the Al-Nusrah Front are holed up in Jurud Arsal, surrounded on all sides by Hizbullah and the Lebanese and Syrian armies. Although the fighters do not pose an immediate threat to Hizbullah, their presence is something that Nasrallah seems more intent than ever to eliminate if only as a precaution against the possible collapse of the Syrian army, or even the regime. After the losses suffered by the regime in the south and north of the country in recent weeks, Hizbullah is not taking any chances. If it clears up the Sunni militants from the border region, it will deny IS and the Al-Nusrah Front a bridgehead into the Shia hinterland. In recent fighting, the Syrian army has lost significant ground to Sunni militants, including the city of Palmyra in southern Syria and Jisr Al-Shughur in Idlib in northern Syria. Nasrallah's determination to change this situation showed through the darker-than-usual imagery he employed. The Hizbullah secretary-general at one point suggested that it “would be better for half the Shia to die” than to lose land to the Sunni militants. If the Shia lose their land, he warned, they will end up either slaughtered or dispersed across the globe, invoking a doomsday scenario to illustrate his willingness to go into battle. At one point, the Hizbullah leader promised a “general mobilisation of all,” but it wasn't clear whether he meant all the Shia or all the Lebanese in his comments. In recent fighting in the Qalamoun Mountains straddling the border between Lebanon and Syria, Hizbullah has claimed to have seized 300sq km of land, consolidating its hold on strategic areas and pushing the Sunni militants closer to the town of Arsal. With 35,000 predominantly Sunni inhabitants and 100,000 Syrian refugees, Arsal may be a tragedy waiting to happen. If Hizbullah attacks, the city is likely to put up stiff resistance, and the bloodshed may trigger a sectarian feud that Lebanon may wish to avert for now. The inhabitants of Arsal, unlike most Sunnis in Lebanon, are also mountain dwellers used to bearing arms, and they may prove capable opponents on the battlefield. Adding to the complexity of the situation is the fact that divisions between the Al-Nusrah Front and IS are quite tense at the moment, with the former, having put together a combat coalition named Jaysh Al-Fatah, or the Army of Conquest, accusing the latter of stabbing it in the back by withdrawing from the battle and leaving it to face the Syrian army alone. At present, the Al-Nusrah Front seems to be trying to maintain a working relationship with IS in the Qalamoun Mountains. But if fighting breaks out, relations between the two militant groups may be put to the test. To avert the worst, several peace initiatives are underway that may help drive the militants from Jurud Arsal without a fight, according to local sources. The Syrian regime is said to have offered safe passage to the Sunni militants to go to Raqqa, a town currently dominated by IS in Syria. This proposal has been rejected by the Al-Nusrah Front, which does not trust IS with the safety of its fighters. As a result, the Al-Nusrah Front may be trying to cut its own deal, offering to release abducted Lebanese military personnel in return for safe passage and the release of its detained members. A report about such a deal was even published in a local Lebanese paper, but was immediately denied by the authorities. According to another report, the Al-Nusrah Front is trying to sell off its hardware as part of any future deal, a matter reportedly being negotiated by Qatari and Turkish mediators. For now, Arsal and Jurud Arsal seem to be poised on a knife's edge. If a deal is made, local people will be spared a tragedy, and Lebanon may avert a conflagration with grave sectarian consequences.
