Images of President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi, his Sudanese counterpart, Omar Hassan Al-Bashir, and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn clasping hands in a sign of solidarity following Monday's signing of a declaration of principles hopefully signals a new phase in relations between the three countries based on cooperation and a shared will to resolve differences over Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam. A diplomat, speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity, cautioned that the political pleasantries shown in the photographs are all very well but they must lead to results on the ground. “The agreement contains ten general principles that should guide relations between the three countries. But we still need to focus on the details of the core issues, the height of the dam, its storage capacity and the timetable for filling the dam's reservoir,” he said. The agreement, says Hani Raslan, head of the Sudan and Nile Basin countries studies programme at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, is no more than a declaration of intent. “It is a small step along the long path that will hopefully lead to resolving a complex issue that has political, strategic and psychological facets. We need to be patient,” he said. The agreement, points out Raslan, contains no indication that Egypt accepts the planned storage capacity of the Ethiopian dam. Nor does Ethiopia say it will be bound by the findings of any independent studies commissioned to examine the impacts of the project. One positive aspect of the declaration of principles, argues Raslan, is that will act to improve Egypt's regional and international profile and at the same time imposes political and moral commitments on Ethiopia that Addis Ababa will find difficult to ignore. But the crux of the issue, he says, is that “post-agreement negotiations are more important than the agreement itself.” “This is what Al-Sisi was stressing at the end of his speech when he said that the importance of the agreement is that it signals good intentions on all the parties resolve outstanding issues.” Maghawry Shehata, an expert on water issues, says the significance of the declaration depends on it being followed by other agreements. “We can measure success or failure by changes in the positions of the different parties. In the past, Addis Ababa repeatedly declined to enter into negotiations about the dam, to the extent that Ethiopia appeared to refuse to accept that the Nile was an international waterway.” Now, says Shehata, “for the first time Ethiopia appears to be committing itself to international laws regulating rivers that pass through more than one country.” The next step, says Shehata, is to form a committee of experts “that will ensure filling the renaissance dam will have no impact on the operation of the High Dam or any other dams.” The declaration of principles signed in Sudan on Monday is expected to be followed by separate agreements covering the filling of the reservoir behind the dam and regulating the generation of electricity by the dam's turbines. Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa have agreed to contract an international consultancy firm to study the impact of the dam on downstream countries. Four consultancy companies — from France, Australia and Holland — have been invited to submit proposals. Following the signing ceremony in Khartoum, Al-Sisi headed to Ethiopia for a two-day visit aimed at boosting bilateral relations. Scheduled to address the Ethiopian parliament on Wednesday, Al-Sisi was expected to ask Ethiopia to formally recognise Egypt's historic right to its share of Nile water. On Tuesday Al-Sisi met with the Ethiopian president and Desalegn. At a press conference following his meeting with Desalegn, Al-Sisi described the declaration of principles as a “positive step” and a “starting point for a better future.” Desalegn said Al-Sisi's visit underlined the “deep relationship” between the two countries, adding that Cairo and Addis Ababa had reached a level of “confidence and understanding” that will last for a long time. He also stressed that the aim in building the Renaissance Dam was to generate electricity for development projects and reiterated Ethiopian reassurances that it will not endanger Egypt's supply of water. The $4.2 billion dam is projected to generate 6,000 megawatts with 16 turbines. The first two turbines are expected to be online by September, and the entire project completed by 2017. Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia improved following the ouster of Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013. Under both Morsi and former president Hosni Mubarak bilateral relations were marred by regular disagreements. Al-Sisi first met Desalegn on the sidelines of the African Union summit in Equatorial Guinea's capital Malabo last year. Following the meeting, a joint statement was issued in which Ethiopia committed itself to recognising the Nile's importance to Egypt and Egypt recognised Ethiopia's right to pursue development. In the wake of the African Union Summit, a committee was formed by Ethiopia and Egypt's foreign ministries to address water issues. Foreign Minister Sameh Shourki and Irrigation Minister Hossam Moghazi met with Moghazi's Sudanese and Ethiopian counterparts in Khartoum earlier this month, the final high-level meeting before the declaration of principles was signed. It is envisaged that within 15 months of the signing of the declaration of principles additional agreements resolving all outstanding issues will be in place. Then, says Shehata, a committee of experts will be formed to review the operation of the dam on an annual basis and provide regular inspections that should “guarantee Ethiopia will not be running the dam unilaterally and that no harm is inflicted on Egypt.”
