Since the earliest moments in recorded time, it has been the scene of conflict, warfare, raids and massacres. Its raging storms and roaring winds speak of the ambitions of outsiders to seize and control it because of its strategic location and its abundant sources of wealth. We refer here to the Middle East. And although Anatolia has always been a major partner in it, a certain coolness and discomfort prevailed between it and its southern neighbours. There are many reasons for this, the theocratic contentions of its Ottoman rulers in their erstwhile imperial seat being a major one. Centuries and then decades later, the geopolitical circumstances changed in tandem with the shifts and contradictions in networks of interwoven interests. By the end of the 1990s, the Turkish ruling elites seemed determined to resolve a number of protracted and recalcitrant problems. Foremost among these was the Cyprus crisis, the resolution to which was a major key to the restoration of tranquility to that important corner of the Mediterranean. Ironically, the first official to promote a serious solution was Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit, the very person who had ordered the Turkish invasion of northern Cyprus when he was serving a previous term as prime minister 30 years earlier. Foreign Minister Ismail Cem Ipekçi exerted enormous efforts to win over Greece, with its boundless influence over Cyprus. Ultimately, he succeeded in generating a thaw, overcoming considerable opposition at home in the process. Ecevit's coalition government was succeeded by one cloaked in religion and armed with righteous piety. Its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to do him justice, began to follow through on his predecessor's drive, encouraging the plan of UN General-Secretary Kofi Annan to reunite the Turkish and Greek halves of the divided island. But suddenly the enthusiasm faded. There were plenty of opportunities on the horizon, but the process ground to a halt. Between the clamour from Turkish ultranationalists and the pressures of electoral considerations, the advice of large quarters of the intelligentsia was lost. The famous novelist Orhan Pamuk, Nobel Prize laureate for literature in 2006, urged officials in Ankara to summon the necessary courage to put paid once and for all to the taboos that hampered resolutions not only to the Cyprus dilemma but to the Armenian one as well. Pamuk was called a traitor. Then the Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink was assassinated by a Turkish ultranationalist who was subsequently acquitted several years later. In tandem with such developments, Erdogan's authoritarian tendencies were beginning to assert themselves while a chauvinistic rhetoric harking back to Ottoman glories and the Turks' Central Asian forefathers betrayed a deep-seated hatred of the West. On the whole, Ankara under Erdogan-dominated JDP rule has been alienating many former friends and allies. If its policies have engendered Western concerns, disapproval and condemnation, its relations with its neighbours to the south have soured considerably. Against this background, the Egyptian-Greek-Cyprus summit that was held in Cairo a week ago Saturday cautioned Ankara against undertaking provocative actions in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkish politicians shrugged off the warning and pretended to ignore it. Yet, only two days later, Admiral Bülent Bostanoglu, commander of the Turkish Naval Forces, issued a statement during the Blue Whale 2014 exercises in the Aegean saying that the Turkish Navy had been authorised by the government to fully implement the rules of engagement that had been amended last year. Otherwise put, Turkey is prepared to confront militarily any ship that approaches what it describes as its territorial waters. These territorial waters here are in the eastern Mediterranean and, specifically, in areas where there are oil and natural gas exploration and drilling projects. The escalation alarmed and angered an important segment of public opinion at home, and quite a few commentators and dailies cautioned against the dangerous trend. Moreover, the Aydinlik newspaper criticised JDP foreign policy architects for their failure to preserve the needed equilibrium in the vital area that abounds with underwater petroleum resources. The government could have offered significant concessions in its negotiations with Greek Cypriots but it did not. It allowed relations with Israel to deteriorate simply in order to play on the emotions of the Turkish electorate and win votes. In the meantime, Turkish national interests suffered, for the upshot of all these actions was to help Israel cement its relations with southern Cyprus and forge a strategic alliance in the eastern Mediterranean the details of which will be discussed during an official visit by Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades to Tel Aviv to meet with Netanyahu on 2 December. Aydinlik predicted that the two countries would reach a comprehensive cooperation agreement that would probably include a provision pertaining to action to take in the event of obstruction by a third country, namely Turkey which has activities in the vicinity concerned. The agreement is certain to receive approval and support from the US, especially given that it has grown increasingly disturbed by the actions and attitudes of its controversial Turkish ally during the past two years. Another Turkish daily, the Milliyet, also felt that the current situation could have been avoided. It blamed the JDP government for what it described as its “mistaken” policies towards Egypt that alienated Cairo. It was only natural that Cyprus takes advantage of the deterioration in Turkish-Egyptian relations to expand what the Milliyet called the “strategic alliance” that is tightening the siege around Turkey. The newspaper underscored the importance of the meetings that will take place in Nicosia on 23 and 24 November with Egyptian officials, noting that discussions there are certain to range well beyond an exchange of views on the process of sales of natural gas. Against this backdrop of heightening tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, a phenomenon that was thought to have vanished has resurfaced. There have been reports of Greek naval harassments of Turkish fishing vessels and the interception of fighter planes in Aegean airspace. Whether or not there is any truth to such reports, the eastern Mediterranean is clearly moving away again from the Turkish state. As for the amended rules of engagement, it is a threat that is unlikely to be acted on in view of the estrangement of Ankara's allies.
