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Back to square one?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 03 - 06 - 2014

Although Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki sent a message of condolences to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan after the Soma mining tragedy in Turkey, the already fragile relations between Iraq and Turkey became worse with the latest shipments of crude oil exported by the Iraqi Kurdish Region, an act heavily criticised by the Iraqi government.
Al-Maliki described the exporting of the oil by the region as an act violating Iraqi sovereignty, and the Iraqi Oil Ministry filed a request for arbitration against Ankara at the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce after crude from the Iraqi Kurdish Region was exported to international markets via a Turkish port.
The ministry issued a statement warning other countries not to buy the crude oil since if they did Iraq “would take measures” against them.
The Baghdad government insists it alone has the right to export Iraqi crude, and it has described the Kurdish sales as “smuggling,” adding that contracts between Erbil and foreign energy firms made without its express consent are illegal.
The oil dispute between Baghdad and Erbil comes from ambiguous articles in the Iraqi constitution. Both sides have their own interpretations of these articles, insisting that they are behaving legally.
Iraqi analysts say that the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government is making use of the problems to advance its cause. The export of the crude oil is its winning card now that the leading political blocs in Baghdad are in conflict and are trying to win Erbil's support.
Baghdad is keen to have the support of Washington, which has warned that the oil export move could destabilise Iraq, with state department spokeswoman Jen Psaki saying that the US does not “support exports without the appropriate approval of the federal Iraqi government, and certainly we do have concerns about the impact of those exports continuing.”
Amidst such problems the violence continues in Iraq. According to casualty figures released last week by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI), a total of at least 799 Iraqis were killed and another 1,409 were injured in acts of terrorism and violence in May.
The number of civilians killed was 603, including 144 civilian police, while the number of civilians injured was 1,108, including 218 civilian police. A further 196 members of the Iraqi Security Forces were killed, and 301 were injured, not including casualties from the Anbar operations.
“I strongly deplore the sustained level of violence and terrorist acts that continue to rock the country. I urge the political leaders to work swiftly for the formation of an inclusive government within the constitutionally mandated time frame and focus on a substantive solution to the situation in Anbar,” special representative of the United Nations Secretary-General Nickolay Mladenov said.
Anbar excluded, Baghdad was the worst-affected governorate with 932 civilian casualties (315 killed and 617 injured), followed by Ninewa (113 killed and 248 injured), Salahuddin (94 killed and 146 injured), Kirkuk (22 killed and 60 injured) and Diyala (38 killed and 28 injured).
The data do not take into account casualties from the current operation in Anbar, for which UNAMI reported separately. According to information obtained by UNAMI from the health directorate in Anbar, the total civilian casualties in Anbar up to 30 May were 195 killed and 499 injured, with 95 killed and 222 injured in Ramadi and 100 killed and 277 injured in Fallujah.
In a bid to support the formation of a new Iraqi government as soon as possible, Mladenov last week visited Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani in his residence in Najaf.
A subsequent statement said that the two men had “discussed the recent elections and the post-electoral environment. His eminence thanked the UN for its support to the election process, and both agreed that the Council of Representatives [The Iraqi parliament] election was organised in a professional manner.”
“It is important that any outstanding appeals of the election results are resolved through the legal process,” Mladenov added.
Both men said that it was important for the new government to be completed within the constitutionally mandated timeline, with Al-Sistani stressing that the future government should be “inclusive” with the substantive participation of all stakeholders.
The situation in Anbar province and the humanitarian needs of those who have been displaced by the fighting was also reviewed. Al-Sistani agreed with the UN representative in saying that a comprehensive solution needed to be found that would allow the violence to end and for the people to return to their homes.
“The UN stands ready to work with the Iraqi authorities on resolving the crisis in an inclusive manner and helping rebuild the areas affected by the fighting,” Mladenov stated.
While most Iraqis want to see a political majority government because of the poor results of the power-sharing policy that had lead the country to the current impasse, many blocs have begun talking of a “national partnership,” another name for power-sharing. Analysts said that another power-sharing government could take Iraq back to square one, however.


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