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Quo vadis Germany's Europa?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 09 - 2013

German Chancellor Angela Merkel helped her black-clad Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its offshoot-party in the state of Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU), win a momentous victory with 42 per cent of the votes, securing an almost absolute majority (311 seats out of a total of 630) on the floor of the Bundestag.
This exceptional result was the first of its kind since 1957, when late Chancellor Konrad Adenauer (one of the CDU's founders and Germany's grandfather), buoyed by West Germany's “economic miracle” (Wirtshchaftswunder) of his first two-terms in office, garnered 50 per cent of the votes and formed a one-party government without resorting to any coalitions (it has never happened since).
Angie, as her supporters cheered her appearance on the stage of Konrad Adenauer House (the CDU party headquarters in Berlin) after the election results started to pour in, was exhilarated, relieved and tired. The Germans didn't fail her and the overall European sentiment against political incumbency doesn't exist in a strong and wealthy Germany.
After four weeks of rallying support for the centre-right CDU/CSU, she succeeded in: remaining as chancellor for a third-term, thus capitalising on her own legacy; gaining enough of a showing that she will have the upper hand in cherry-picking her ministers; and silencing her domestic, European and international critics. Yet, as the votes have been tallied and the campaign fever is set aside for four years, another kind of political circus will take place in Berlin during the coming few weeks. That is, forming the government.
Ideally, and due to the unequivocal mandate that Angie received from Germans, she can govern alone. The other scenario is a coalition government with the two centre left parties represented by the red-coloured Social Democratic Party (SPD), which received 26 per cent of the vote (a better result than in the previous 2009 elections), and the Greens, plagued by controversy, scandals and poor campaigning, with 8.4 per cent. Hence, the hopes of forming a “Red-Green” coalition government are shattered with the strong performance of Angie's CDU/CSU.
Yet, forming a government in consensus-driven Germany is not that easy. The first Angie government (2005-2009) was a grand coalition where the SPD's gaffe-prone Peer Steinbryck (aka “Peerlusconi”), who was her main challenger to the chancellorship this year, served as her finance minister and both helped in weathering the 2008 financial crisis. Her second government, which ended its mandate with this election, was a coalition with the liberals and business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP), which filled key posts in the outgoing government (Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is one several FDP politicians who neither will serve in the upcoming government nor even in the new Bundestag).
The poor — yet predicted — showing of the FDP, who landed a meagre 4.8 per cent (they gained 14.6 per cent in the 2009 elections and have been a key player in every Bundestag since 1949) will force Angie to shuffle her cards and find an alternative strategy for governing Europe's the most prosperous nation for the coming four years.
Will she govern alone? Or form another grand coalition with her SPD rivals? What if she heeded to some of her young supporters and formed a coalition with the leftist Greens?
It's apropos to mention that the “Black-Green” alliance has worked in many cities, yet hasn't been tested at the federal level. Thus, as the campaigning circus ends, the Germans having made their voices heard, Berlin's attention will now shift to the closed-door negotiations of forming the best government that represents the Germans, and secondly can steer the European economy.
It's also hard to predict the leanings of the new government, due to the fact that the second winner of this election, which can put a spoke in Angie's wheel, is the communist leaning, red-clad Left. Garnering 8.6 per cent of the Bundestag election and being the third largest party, its leaders can entice the other two leftist parties to form a “Red-Red-Green” government that can unseat Angie and end her legacy. The only deterring factor is the angst of some Greens and SPD members at the radicalism of the Left Party, to which they don't subscribe. Yet, if the Left de-radicalises and meets the expectations of the German electorate it can have a bigger role in any left-leaning government, and thus, makes many crisis-stricken Europeans jubilant while gloating at Angie's political demise.
European analysts always keep to the dictum that all politics is local. It isn't a secret that Germany's major trade partner, France, has supported Angie's main contender. Socialist President François Hollande's endorsement of the SPD was unequivocal and the Portuguese, Italians, Greeks and Spaniards have wished for government change in Berlin due to Angie's tough course of the “A-word” — ie austerity. It must be heart wrenching for them to know that Angie will remain Europe's chancellor, emboldened with the German vote and trust in handling their Euro-filled saving accounts.
Angie's Germany is once again in the driving seat, after a campaigning hiatus, to steer the European Union's economy and that of the 17-member state Eurozone. Forming a new strong and harmonious German government is of essential import to the beleaguered economies of the old continent that must put aside all differences in policy and politics to stay the course and steer Europe out of the gutter.
The Europeans, who have ditched all their leaders, from the United Kingdom's Gordon Brown to France's Nicolas Sarkozy, have watched with shock-and-awe how the Germans kept their Angie and told her, ‘Your path is right; your Europe is the one we want and we will show the world our confidence in you!' Angie listened intently to her people's mandate and now it's time for her to stop the haemorrhaging of the feeble Euro, thus saving the entire European project — the bedrock of Germany's prosperity.
If she will remain Germany's chancellor, and she will, all Europe must help her in bold policy initiatives to nip the Eurozone crisis in the bud and, above all, to maintain trust in the collective future of a peaceful European continent.
If that happens, Angie won't be only regarded as the mutti (mother) of Germany, but that of the entire continent.


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