“Life in Egypt depends on the Nile. It is difficult to accept a dam that could reduce the amount of Nile water reaching Egypt,” says Ali, a carpenter. Tessema, an Ethiopian, has different priorities. In a comment on the Internet he wrote that “by 2050 Ethiopia's population is estimated to reach 225 million... we need electricity.” Egypt has enjoyed historic rights over water from the Nile courtesy of colonial era treaties and a 1959 agreement which fixed Egypt's quota at 55.5 billion cubic metres of water and Sudan's at 18.5 billion. Ethiopia says these agreements are not binding and wants them reviewed. Addis Ababa insists on its right to build dams on the Nile to generate electricity and supply agricultural development projects while Egypt is equally insistent that, under existing treaties, no developments affecting the river can go ahead without Cairo's agreement. The Millennium Dam, a $4.2 billion hydroelectric project to be built on the Blue Nile, was always going to cause difficulties between Cairo and Addis Ababa. Egypt fears that it will impact negatively on the 80 per cent of its total water supply which comes from the Blue Nile while Ethiopia has repeatedly said the dam will not affect the amount of water reaching Egypt. A technical report issued by the tripartite committee commissioned to examine the issue and which included Egyptian, Sudanese, Ethiopian as well as international experts, found there was insufficient evidence to substantiate Ethiopia's claims and recommended more studies be conducted on the impact of the dam as well as on the dangers posed by any malfunction of the gigantic project. Sudan has warned of the devastation it would suffer in the event of the dam's collapse. Mohamed Idriss, Egypt's ambassador to Ethiopia, told Al-Ahram Weekly in a phone interview that a meeting between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia is now expected to be held by the end of this month to discuss the recommendations of the tripartite committee. Though the venue of the meeting has not yet been fixed it is scheduled to be attended by three countries' ministers of irrigation and experts from all three states who will review the technical aspects of the project. The meeting, initially scheduled for July was subsequently delayed until early august and then pushed even further back. There are fears that any further delays will mean that ongoing construction work could impose unalterable changes on the ground. “The most important thing,” says Idriss, “is that all parties, including Ethiopia, have declared their commitment to implementing recommendations made in the tripartite technical committee's report.” “Ethiopia will go on with its plans to build the dam while taking into account technical studies and future proposed adjustments so as to not negatively impact either Egypt or Sudan.” The tripartite committee, which started its work in November 2011, issued its report in June. Ethiopia only agreed to establish the committee after an Egyptian popular delegation visited Addis Ababa in May 2011. The delegation managed to convince the then Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zinawi to postpone ratifying the Entebbe agreement — signed by all Nile Basin states except Egypt, Sudan and Congo — for a year to allow a committee to study the dam's impact. In a press conference shortly after his appointment as foreign minister last month Nabil Fahmi expressed concern that the planned meeting to discuss the impact of the Renaissance Dam had not yet been held. He called on Addis Ababa to facilitate the meeting as soon as possible, noting that losing yet more time was in no one's interest. A day later he underlined the importance of holding the technical meeting to discuss the impacts of the dam to his Ethiopian counterpart Tedros Adhanom. Egypt's newly appointed Irrigation Minister Mohamed Abdel-Moteleb subsequently met Ethiopian ambassador to Egypt Mahmoud Dirir to discuss preparations for the meeting. In June, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to start negotiations on the recommendations made by the international tripartite technical committee. The agreement came after former foreign minister Mohamed Kamel Amr paid a visit to Ethiopia and Sudan to discuss the issue. Meanwhile, Ethiopia's foreign minister was expected to visit Egypt early July but the visit was cancelled owing to domestic turmoil in Egypt. Idriss says the visit is still on the agenda of both ministers but will take place when the internal situation in Egypt is “more suitable”. A delegation of senior Egyptian diplomats, including Africa expert Mona Omar, has already travelled to a number of African states, starting with Ethiopia, in an attempt to improve Egypt's image following the overthrow of Mohamed Morsi. Construction on the Millennium Dam began in May 2011 after upstream states, with the exception of Congo, signed the Entebbe Agreement. The Entebbe Agreement is supposed to replace the 1959 treaty which enshrines Egypt and Sudan's lion's share of Nile water and the right to veto any projects built along the river. Cairo and Khartoum have refused to sign the agreement. Southern Sudan signed in April.
